Steeep Cliff..
Barack Obama has a good Al Gore story.
Sometime after the 2000 election, Obama called on a corporate executive in a big office with a terrific view of midtown Manhattan. The businessman had been an ardent Gore supporter, and the former vice president had recently asked him to consider investing in a startup television venture. "It was strange," the executive told Obama.
"Here he was, a former vice president, a man who had just a few months earlier been on the verge of being the most powerful man on the planet. During the campaign, I would take his calls any time of day, would rearrange my schedule whenever he wanted to meet. But suddenly, after the election, when he walked in, I couldn't help feeling that the meeting was a chore. I hate to admit it, because I really like the guy. But at some level he wasn't Al Gore, former vice president. He was just one of the hundred guys a day who are coming to me looking for money.
It made me realize what a big steep cliff you guys are on." Obama, recounting the anecdote in "The Audacity of Hope," notes: "A big steep cliff, the precipitous fall." And, in Gore's case, the climb back up the cliff, to a Nobel Peace Prize and global eminence. Obama, who is now arguably the most powerful man in the world, understands that power is a fluid thing, and has been since the first caveman threw a rock at another caveman.
In the popular imagination, power tends to be viewed in one of two ways, both extreme. The first is totemic and tactical (how to get ahead at the office, to win friends and influence people). The other is epic and amorphous (the fate of markets, of vast global events and forces that seem beyond anyone's control, but especially yours).
Power is both these things, and more. At heart, it is best understood in terms of command and control. It is either the capacity to make others do as you wish (the command function) or to reorder the environment around you (the control function).
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To study it intimately and specifically—how people get power, and how they wield it—is not only diverting (though, as Homer and Shakespeare knew, it is surely that). It is also illuminating, for understanding its accumulation and deployment enables us to learn, possibly, how to change the world around us, and the world at large.
Forgive that last bit of Dawn-of-the-Age-of-Obama hyperbole, but there is real hope behind the hype of the season. The discussion of power makes many left-of-center Americans somewhat uncomfortable, for it can be offensive to democratic sensibilities. Many right-of-center Americans, too, find the conversation unsettling, for it inevitably leads to thoughts of a governing elite, which conservatives in recent decades have chosen to vilify for rhetorical purposes. From Plato forward, philosophers have struggled to define power and, in the act of definition, to delineate it from the other impulses that shape what we do.
The beginning of 2009, the last year of the first decade of the 21st century, is a good time to consider the nature of power, and of the powerful, because the world is being reordered in so many ways—broadly by what my colleague Fareed Zakaria calls "the rise of the rest," the emergence of powers such as India, China and Brazil, and specifically by the global recession. The cultural, political and economic consequences of the financial meltdown cannot be overestimated. Unthinking trust in unfettered markets has evaporated, and the concern appears to be more than a temporary fit of worry that will pass when things start to get better. The demise of titans on Wall Street has elevated bureaucrats and politicians in Washington and Beijing and Brussels. And there is one politician in particular whose exercise of power will affect all of us for years to come: the president-elect, whose victory in November and transition—accompanied by the virtual disappearance of President Bush—have marked a resurgence of confidence in America.
A senior European diplomat recently marveled to me about the American capacity to change course with rapidity and apparent ease: the shift from Bush to Obama —from the scion of one of America's noblest families to the child of a brief marriage between a young Kansan and a Kenyan academic, who proceeded to see his son exactly once—was simply astonishing.
NEWSWEEK
Sunday, 28 December 2008
concern....
China in prospect 2009:
If it gets this bad, lock up your spoons and womenfolk
Even with the outlook for the world economy rapidly worsening, many economists are still relatively optimistic about the prospects for the Chinese economy next year.
While the International Monetary Fund recently lowered its forecast for 2009 real GDP growth to 5 percent, the World Bank is expecting 7.5 percent. This was also the consensus estimate of professional forecasters surveyed earlier this month by Frankfurt-based Dekabank. Wang Tong-san, a spokesperson for the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was even more upbeat at a recent press conference, telling reporters he expected 9 percent, or even a bit more, and putting the likelihood of this prediction at "better than 70 percent."
Speaking at the opening of the fifth US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue on December 4, China’s central bank governor Zhou Xiao-chuan sounded a more pessimistic note, however, warning that China must prepare for the “worst case scenario.”
While he didn’t elaborate, it’s easy to see what he’s worried about. If the sharp slowdown in exports and investment that is now showing up in the monthly statistics continues next year, the 8 percent growth believed to be necessary to keep unemployment under control will be difficult to achieve.
To answer the question of how bad things could get in 2009 we might start by considering a repeat of the net exports crash and fiscal stimulus that followed the 1997 Asia crisis as a base case. In this scenario, real gross domestic product growth could slow to as little as 4.5 percent. While in 1999, the worst Asia crisis year for China, growth only fell to 7.8 percent, the drop in net exports experienced 10 years ago would have much more severe consequences today because of the Chinese economy’s increased reliance on foreign trade.
The question then becomes how much the recently announced Rmb4 trillion fiscal stimulus package could boost GDP above this base-case level, which already includes the 1-2 percentage points such policies are believed to have contributed in 1999. National Development and Reform Commission Minister Zhang Ping has put the contribution from this stimulus at only 1 percentage point per year, implying no increase over our base case at all. And even the 2 percentage-point impact that many private-sector economists are looking for would at most raise this base-case forecast by only 1 percentage point. Thus 5.5 percent growth would seem to be about all that could be hoped for.
The problem, of course, is that now, unlike in 1999, the whole world is in crisis. Even 5.5 percent growth looks like more of a best case than a worst case scenario. In the worst case scenario, growth will be close to zero or even negative, which would have serious implications for employment and social stability.
Zero percentIn 1998, consumption accounted for 60 percent of nominal GDP (as calculated by the expenditure method); investment, 36 percent; and net exports, 4 percent. In 1999, these three components grew at 8 percent, 5 percent, and -35 percent, respectively, resulting in nominal GDP growth of 5.2 percent. (Real GDP growth was higher that year due to deflation.)
A rerun of those 1999 growth rates, but starting from the current GDP component shares—with consumption now accounting for 49 percent of GDP; investment, 42 percent; and net exports, 9 percent—would result in nominal GDP growth of only 2.9 percent. (The effects of a fiscal stimulus equivalent to the one in 1999 are captured in the ’99 consumption and investment growth rates as both include government spending.) Even if we also assume a repeat of the 1-2 percent deflation of the late 1990s, so that next year’s base case real GDP grew at, say, 4.5 percent, allowing for an additional one percentage point fiscal stimulus only gets you to 5.5 percent.
To expect something more than this, you’d have to believe that either the fiscal stimulus would contribute a lot more to growth than the NDRC says it will or that there will be a big turnaround in the world economy next year. As there is no reason to doubt the NDRC’s analysis of the stimulus package and all the evidence we have so far suggests that the global slowdown is worsening rather than abating, neither of these possibilities seems particularly likely.
On the other hand, plenty of downside is possible. Private sector investment, for example, could easily fall next year in response to the ongoing contraction in real estate and manufacturing and the excess capacity that has been evident for some time in sectors such as steel, cement, and auto manufacturing. (In 2007, Hebei Province alone produced 107 million tons of steel, more than any country except Japan.) Government investment will presumably grow rapidly as a result of the stimulus plan, but there is no guarantee that this can entirely compensate for a slowdown in the private sector.
Zero percent investment growth is certainly not out of the question and this would imply only 0.8 percent nominal GDP growth in our base case scenario. And if the GDP deflator next year were in the range of October’s 4 percent CPI inflation, real GDP would shrink for the first time since the beginning of the ‘reform and opening’ period in 1978. (The GDP deflator is a measure of inflation used to adjust nominal GDP growth for the effects of price changes.)
Asia Sentinel
If it gets this bad, lock up your spoons and womenfolk
Even with the outlook for the world economy rapidly worsening, many economists are still relatively optimistic about the prospects for the Chinese economy next year.
While the International Monetary Fund recently lowered its forecast for 2009 real GDP growth to 5 percent, the World Bank is expecting 7.5 percent. This was also the consensus estimate of professional forecasters surveyed earlier this month by Frankfurt-based Dekabank. Wang Tong-san, a spokesperson for the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was even more upbeat at a recent press conference, telling reporters he expected 9 percent, or even a bit more, and putting the likelihood of this prediction at "better than 70 percent."
Speaking at the opening of the fifth US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue on December 4, China’s central bank governor Zhou Xiao-chuan sounded a more pessimistic note, however, warning that China must prepare for the “worst case scenario.”
While he didn’t elaborate, it’s easy to see what he’s worried about. If the sharp slowdown in exports and investment that is now showing up in the monthly statistics continues next year, the 8 percent growth believed to be necessary to keep unemployment under control will be difficult to achieve.
To answer the question of how bad things could get in 2009 we might start by considering a repeat of the net exports crash and fiscal stimulus that followed the 1997 Asia crisis as a base case. In this scenario, real gross domestic product growth could slow to as little as 4.5 percent. While in 1999, the worst Asia crisis year for China, growth only fell to 7.8 percent, the drop in net exports experienced 10 years ago would have much more severe consequences today because of the Chinese economy’s increased reliance on foreign trade.
The question then becomes how much the recently announced Rmb4 trillion fiscal stimulus package could boost GDP above this base-case level, which already includes the 1-2 percentage points such policies are believed to have contributed in 1999. National Development and Reform Commission Minister Zhang Ping has put the contribution from this stimulus at only 1 percentage point per year, implying no increase over our base case at all. And even the 2 percentage-point impact that many private-sector economists are looking for would at most raise this base-case forecast by only 1 percentage point. Thus 5.5 percent growth would seem to be about all that could be hoped for.
The problem, of course, is that now, unlike in 1999, the whole world is in crisis. Even 5.5 percent growth looks like more of a best case than a worst case scenario. In the worst case scenario, growth will be close to zero or even negative, which would have serious implications for employment and social stability.
Zero percentIn 1998, consumption accounted for 60 percent of nominal GDP (as calculated by the expenditure method); investment, 36 percent; and net exports, 4 percent. In 1999, these three components grew at 8 percent, 5 percent, and -35 percent, respectively, resulting in nominal GDP growth of 5.2 percent. (Real GDP growth was higher that year due to deflation.)
A rerun of those 1999 growth rates, but starting from the current GDP component shares—with consumption now accounting for 49 percent of GDP; investment, 42 percent; and net exports, 9 percent—would result in nominal GDP growth of only 2.9 percent. (The effects of a fiscal stimulus equivalent to the one in 1999 are captured in the ’99 consumption and investment growth rates as both include government spending.) Even if we also assume a repeat of the 1-2 percent deflation of the late 1990s, so that next year’s base case real GDP grew at, say, 4.5 percent, allowing for an additional one percentage point fiscal stimulus only gets you to 5.5 percent.
To expect something more than this, you’d have to believe that either the fiscal stimulus would contribute a lot more to growth than the NDRC says it will or that there will be a big turnaround in the world economy next year. As there is no reason to doubt the NDRC’s analysis of the stimulus package and all the evidence we have so far suggests that the global slowdown is worsening rather than abating, neither of these possibilities seems particularly likely.
On the other hand, plenty of downside is possible. Private sector investment, for example, could easily fall next year in response to the ongoing contraction in real estate and manufacturing and the excess capacity that has been evident for some time in sectors such as steel, cement, and auto manufacturing. (In 2007, Hebei Province alone produced 107 million tons of steel, more than any country except Japan.) Government investment will presumably grow rapidly as a result of the stimulus plan, but there is no guarantee that this can entirely compensate for a slowdown in the private sector.
Zero percent investment growth is certainly not out of the question and this would imply only 0.8 percent nominal GDP growth in our base case scenario. And if the GDP deflator next year were in the range of October’s 4 percent CPI inflation, real GDP would shrink for the first time since the beginning of the ‘reform and opening’ period in 1978. (The GDP deflator is a measure of inflation used to adjust nominal GDP growth for the effects of price changes.)
Asia Sentinel
what to du ...
2009 to be bleak...
The first quarter of 2009 is going to look frightening to Asia's exporters In the United States they used to say that no retailer ever goes bankrupt before Christmas. The consumers flooding into the stores during the holiday season provided even sagging shopkeepers with a last dose of income and hope. The closing days of 2008 appear to be putting an end to such dreams, and not just for Detroit's distressed automakers.
The retail blight in the US is likely to spell big trouble across the Pacific for the thousands of factories that supply consumer goods to the west. The upshot could be a hard landing for China, despite official projections of 8-9 percent gross domestic product growth.
As many as 6,500 retail shops are estimated to be closed for good in the US by the end of the year. US consumers habitually slow their spending to a minimum for the entire first quarter of the year. Many retailers who claw their way through a slow Christmas season will now be closing in greater numbers, synapsing their way up and down the food chain — to advertising agencies, newspapers and magazines, shopping mall owners and factories in Asia that supply them with gadgets, gizmos and finery.
The United States, Europe and Japan – all three of which are descending into recession – account for at least 56 percent of China's exports, which went negative month-on-month in November for the first time in seven years. Although exports to emerging markets grew by 20 percent in the first 10 months of 2008, these economies are also slipping. China’s imports from other Asian countries are intermediate goods used as imports for export processing, meaning they will have little impact on the regional economies. China can be expected to face an export collapse in the first quarter of 2009, perhaps by as much as 19 percent to 20 percent from the cyclical high and a fall of perhaps 3 percent year on year for 2009, according to an estimate by Qu Hongbin, China chief economist for global banking for HSBC.
China's exporters are already in trouble, particularly in the export-driven Pearl River Delta. For more than a year, squeezed by rising labor costs and falling margins, manufacturers have been facing a mounting crisis. Now, as bankruptcies and store closures rise in the west, fears are rising that the credit facilities on which the Asian supply chain is built will be severely strained.
"All the decoupling theory is total bunk," says a top figure in Hong Kong's outsourcing industry. "People are holding out China as the locomotive that is going to pull the rest of the world through. But China is just one big factory export processing zone for low-cost goods, based on western demand and cheap credit. It isn't going to work."
The pace of western retailing bankruptcies is rising. The most recent collapse was KB Toys, a toy chain in the eastern United States that filed for protection on Dec. 11, saying it planned to hold going out-of-business sales at hundreds of stores. It has 4,400 full-time employees and 6,515 seasonal employees. In the same week, Woolworths, the venerable British chain, greeted its 100th anniversary year by announcing that it would appoint administrators in an attempt to sell its stores for cash.
In November the US electronics retailer Circuit City announced it would file for Chapter 11 protection and close 155 of its locations, leaving some 8,000 employees jobless. Spectrum Brands, which sells batteries, lawn care equipment, pet supplies, grooming products and many other items, was said by Morningstar, Inc. to be in serious distress. Although it was not filing for protection, Office Depot, which sources most of its supplies in Asia, announced on December 10 that it would close 126 stores and 33 distribution facilities in 2009.
Joseph Skrupa, editor in chief for RIS News, which follows the retail industry, told the Washington Post in December that an estimated 6,500 retail stores will close.
Consumer spending accounted for 72 percent of the US economy in 2007, built personal debt that ran to 133 percent of disposable income by the end of 2007. With the US economy headed down, average per capita bank credit card debt was US$5,710 as of November, the equivalent of two months average salary. As an example of how consumers stopped spending, toy traffic through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which handle about half of US consumer imports, has declined by 10.3 percent as measured by tonnage according to IHS Global Insight.
China makes nine of every 10 toys sold in American stores. In 2007 it exported US$14.2 billion worth of leather products, more than half the world's shoes, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
China and India between them produce well over half the world's textiles, according to the USDA. Consequently the shoe manufacturers, textile producers and toy makers of the Pearl River Delta, on whom a large extent of China's torrid prosperity has rested, face even more frightening times going forward than they have faced over the last two years.
Exacerbating the fact that there are fewer orders – and substantial questions whether the strapped or bankrupt retailers at the other end of the supply chain are going to be able to pay off what already has been shipped – is the credit crisis. Certainly, Hong Kong's banks are continuing to ration credit despite the fact that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has pourd almost HK$130 billion into the system since September Hong Kong dollar lending has virtually stopped, with loans going negative in October. Credit facilities are being withdrawn in China and Hong Kong as well, a growing problem for export-oriented companies.
This can be expected to play itself out with the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in export-oriented industries in China and other Asian countries, and growing concern over social unrest. There is plenty of room for the leaders to get worried. According to a study of migrant workers reported by the highly respected Caijing Magazine, only a fraction of the unemployed have returned to their villages. Some 10 million peasant workers have lost their jobs, according to the report, but the more severe impact is expected after the spring festival, when the thousads of closed factories don't open up again. Riot police have already had to make their appearance in southern cities to contain laid-off — and unpaid — workers. The scenario is a vast army of angry jobless workers wandering the streets of once-prosperous southern China with little to eat and no prospects. That could be the ghost of revolution past. Asia Sentinel..
The first quarter of 2009 is going to look frightening to Asia's exporters In the United States they used to say that no retailer ever goes bankrupt before Christmas. The consumers flooding into the stores during the holiday season provided even sagging shopkeepers with a last dose of income and hope. The closing days of 2008 appear to be putting an end to such dreams, and not just for Detroit's distressed automakers.
The retail blight in the US is likely to spell big trouble across the Pacific for the thousands of factories that supply consumer goods to the west. The upshot could be a hard landing for China, despite official projections of 8-9 percent gross domestic product growth.
As many as 6,500 retail shops are estimated to be closed for good in the US by the end of the year. US consumers habitually slow their spending to a minimum for the entire first quarter of the year. Many retailers who claw their way through a slow Christmas season will now be closing in greater numbers, synapsing their way up and down the food chain — to advertising agencies, newspapers and magazines, shopping mall owners and factories in Asia that supply them with gadgets, gizmos and finery.
The United States, Europe and Japan – all three of which are descending into recession – account for at least 56 percent of China's exports, which went negative month-on-month in November for the first time in seven years. Although exports to emerging markets grew by 20 percent in the first 10 months of 2008, these economies are also slipping. China’s imports from other Asian countries are intermediate goods used as imports for export processing, meaning they will have little impact on the regional economies. China can be expected to face an export collapse in the first quarter of 2009, perhaps by as much as 19 percent to 20 percent from the cyclical high and a fall of perhaps 3 percent year on year for 2009, according to an estimate by Qu Hongbin, China chief economist for global banking for HSBC.
China's exporters are already in trouble, particularly in the export-driven Pearl River Delta. For more than a year, squeezed by rising labor costs and falling margins, manufacturers have been facing a mounting crisis. Now, as bankruptcies and store closures rise in the west, fears are rising that the credit facilities on which the Asian supply chain is built will be severely strained.
"All the decoupling theory is total bunk," says a top figure in Hong Kong's outsourcing industry. "People are holding out China as the locomotive that is going to pull the rest of the world through. But China is just one big factory export processing zone for low-cost goods, based on western demand and cheap credit. It isn't going to work."
The pace of western retailing bankruptcies is rising. The most recent collapse was KB Toys, a toy chain in the eastern United States that filed for protection on Dec. 11, saying it planned to hold going out-of-business sales at hundreds of stores. It has 4,400 full-time employees and 6,515 seasonal employees. In the same week, Woolworths, the venerable British chain, greeted its 100th anniversary year by announcing that it would appoint administrators in an attempt to sell its stores for cash.
In November the US electronics retailer Circuit City announced it would file for Chapter 11 protection and close 155 of its locations, leaving some 8,000 employees jobless. Spectrum Brands, which sells batteries, lawn care equipment, pet supplies, grooming products and many other items, was said by Morningstar, Inc. to be in serious distress. Although it was not filing for protection, Office Depot, which sources most of its supplies in Asia, announced on December 10 that it would close 126 stores and 33 distribution facilities in 2009.
Joseph Skrupa, editor in chief for RIS News, which follows the retail industry, told the Washington Post in December that an estimated 6,500 retail stores will close.
Consumer spending accounted for 72 percent of the US economy in 2007, built personal debt that ran to 133 percent of disposable income by the end of 2007. With the US economy headed down, average per capita bank credit card debt was US$5,710 as of November, the equivalent of two months average salary. As an example of how consumers stopped spending, toy traffic through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which handle about half of US consumer imports, has declined by 10.3 percent as measured by tonnage according to IHS Global Insight.
China makes nine of every 10 toys sold in American stores. In 2007 it exported US$14.2 billion worth of leather products, more than half the world's shoes, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
China and India between them produce well over half the world's textiles, according to the USDA. Consequently the shoe manufacturers, textile producers and toy makers of the Pearl River Delta, on whom a large extent of China's torrid prosperity has rested, face even more frightening times going forward than they have faced over the last two years.
Exacerbating the fact that there are fewer orders – and substantial questions whether the strapped or bankrupt retailers at the other end of the supply chain are going to be able to pay off what already has been shipped – is the credit crisis. Certainly, Hong Kong's banks are continuing to ration credit despite the fact that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has pourd almost HK$130 billion into the system since September Hong Kong dollar lending has virtually stopped, with loans going negative in October. Credit facilities are being withdrawn in China and Hong Kong as well, a growing problem for export-oriented companies.
This can be expected to play itself out with the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in export-oriented industries in China and other Asian countries, and growing concern over social unrest. There is plenty of room for the leaders to get worried. According to a study of migrant workers reported by the highly respected Caijing Magazine, only a fraction of the unemployed have returned to their villages. Some 10 million peasant workers have lost their jobs, according to the report, but the more severe impact is expected after the spring festival, when the thousads of closed factories don't open up again. Riot police have already had to make their appearance in southern cities to contain laid-off — and unpaid — workers. The scenario is a vast army of angry jobless workers wandering the streets of once-prosperous southern China with little to eat and no prospects. That could be the ghost of revolution past. Asia Sentinel..
stubborn as they are...
Any surprise....anyone asked why?
Israeli raid on Gaza
[AFP]
Israel launched air attacks across the besieged Gaza Strip on Saturday, threatening that further operations would be carried out.
Emergency services said that at least 300 people had been wounded.
Witnesses reported heavy damage as at least 30 missiles were fired.
Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister, said that the operation would not be short.
"The operation will go on and be intensified as long as necessary," he said on Saturday.
An Israeli military spokesman added that any "Hamas target is a target".
As dusk fell, Israel continued to bomb the strip, firing on a metal foundry in the south.
"Our resolve cannot be dented and cannot be shaken"
Taher al-Noono, a Hamas spokesmanSalam Fayyad, the Palestinian prime minister, condemned the attack and demanded an immediate cessation.
Hours after the Israeli assault, Gaza fighters fired home-made rockets into southern Israel, heeding calls by Hamas and other affiliated Palestinian groups to avenge the attacks, unprecedented in their scale.
One Israeli was killed in the rocket fire, medics said.
Taher al-Noono, a Hamas spokesman, described Israel's operation as a "massacre", adding: "However, our resolve cannot be dented and cannot be shaken. We will continue our struggle with absolute strength and steadfastness."
Islam Shahwan, a Hamas police spokesman, said a police graduation ceremony in Gaza City was struck by Israel. Among those killed was Tawfiq Jabber, the Gaza chief of police.
The Hamas-run interior ministry said all security compounds in the Strip had been destroyed.
Gaza is densely populated. Its 1.5 million residents area already experiencing shortages in medicine, power and basic supplies due to 18 months of an Israeli blockade.
'War crimes'
Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president and leader of Fatah, condemned the "aggression" in Gaza.
Smoke billowed into the air above the Gaza Strip [AFP]Mousa Abu Morzouz, the deputy leader of Hamas, told Al Jazeera: "Until now the aggression didn't stop ... they are targeting all the police headquarters and offices.
"We will defend our people, we will retaliate against this aggression ... our military will retaliate."
Morzouz called on the world's most powerful nations to condemn the attacks: "Nobody in this world can accept what happened and the Israeli aggression ... [we expect] the international community to stand against this and say that it is not acceptable."
Mustafa Barghouthi, the former Palestinian information minister, said: "This is not an attack on the Hamas. It is an attack on the whole population and the free will of the people of Gaza."
He accused Israel of committing "war crimes" and demanded that Abbas and his government stop all relations with Israel.
'Only just beginning'
The Israel army released a statement saying "terrorist installations" were hit and that all Israeli pilots returned unharmed.
The operation against the Hamas is "only just beginning," Avi Benayahu, an Israeli military spokesman said.
The air raids follow the decision by the Israeli security cabinet to increase reprisals for cross-border rocket attacks against Israel, and the breakdown of a six-month-old Israel-Hamas truce earlier this month.
The ceasefire expired on December 19, with Hamas arguing that Israel had violated the truce by preventing vital food and medical supplies into the Strip.
Ayman Mohyeldin, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Gaza, said: "A series of explosions were heard over Gaza City.
"From where we are, there are at least seven different clouds of smoke from the strikes. We are seeing some casualties being evacuated in cars."
Egypt has opened the Rafah crossing with the Gaza Strip to receive injured people, Egyptian officials said. Ambulances have been sent to the crossing and two Egyptian hospitals emptied to take in the wounded.
Weakened security services
Mohyeldin said that Hamas, which rule the Gaza Strip, was being held responsible by Israel for any attacks from the territory into Israel, even if they are undertaken by other Palestinian factions.
Palestinian officials called on the international community to condemn the raids [AFP]However, officials of the deposed government in Gaza which maintains law and order, while being Hamas member in the main, are separate from the group's military wing and other factions responsible for attacks into Israel.
"There is within Gaza a functioning ministry of interior that has security services, traffic control, emergency medical services," Mohyeldin reported.
"Those workers are seen as employees of the government in Gaza. So now that many of these installations have been targeted, it will have an immediate impact in terms of the law and order structure here in Gaza."
Jacky Rowland, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Jerusalem, said that Israel's decision to strike at this moment was down to Hamas withdrawing from the ceasefire and the intensified rocket fire coming from the Gaza Strip in recent days.
"In one day [in the past week] we saw 80 rockets ... which is a huge upsurge," she said.
Hamas won control of the Palestinian Legislative Council in elections in January 2005. The international community refused to accept a Hamas-led government, demanding that the faction recognise Israel and renounce violence. Economic sanctions by the EU and US followed.
Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip in June 2007 after bloody street battles against its rival, the Fatah movement. AL AZEERA
Israeli raid on Gaza
[AFP]
Israel launched air attacks across the besieged Gaza Strip on Saturday, threatening that further operations would be carried out.
Emergency services said that at least 300 people had been wounded.
Witnesses reported heavy damage as at least 30 missiles were fired.
Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister, said that the operation would not be short.
"The operation will go on and be intensified as long as necessary," he said on Saturday.
An Israeli military spokesman added that any "Hamas target is a target".
As dusk fell, Israel continued to bomb the strip, firing on a metal foundry in the south.
"Our resolve cannot be dented and cannot be shaken"
Taher al-Noono, a Hamas spokesmanSalam Fayyad, the Palestinian prime minister, condemned the attack and demanded an immediate cessation.
Hours after the Israeli assault, Gaza fighters fired home-made rockets into southern Israel, heeding calls by Hamas and other affiliated Palestinian groups to avenge the attacks, unprecedented in their scale.
One Israeli was killed in the rocket fire, medics said.
Taher al-Noono, a Hamas spokesman, described Israel's operation as a "massacre", adding: "However, our resolve cannot be dented and cannot be shaken. We will continue our struggle with absolute strength and steadfastness."
Islam Shahwan, a Hamas police spokesman, said a police graduation ceremony in Gaza City was struck by Israel. Among those killed was Tawfiq Jabber, the Gaza chief of police.
The Hamas-run interior ministry said all security compounds in the Strip had been destroyed.
Gaza is densely populated. Its 1.5 million residents area already experiencing shortages in medicine, power and basic supplies due to 18 months of an Israeli blockade.
'War crimes'
Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president and leader of Fatah, condemned the "aggression" in Gaza.
Smoke billowed into the air above the Gaza Strip [AFP]Mousa Abu Morzouz, the deputy leader of Hamas, told Al Jazeera: "Until now the aggression didn't stop ... they are targeting all the police headquarters and offices.
"We will defend our people, we will retaliate against this aggression ... our military will retaliate."
Morzouz called on the world's most powerful nations to condemn the attacks: "Nobody in this world can accept what happened and the Israeli aggression ... [we expect] the international community to stand against this and say that it is not acceptable."
Mustafa Barghouthi, the former Palestinian information minister, said: "This is not an attack on the Hamas. It is an attack on the whole population and the free will of the people of Gaza."
He accused Israel of committing "war crimes" and demanded that Abbas and his government stop all relations with Israel.
'Only just beginning'
The Israel army released a statement saying "terrorist installations" were hit and that all Israeli pilots returned unharmed.
The operation against the Hamas is "only just beginning," Avi Benayahu, an Israeli military spokesman said.
The air raids follow the decision by the Israeli security cabinet to increase reprisals for cross-border rocket attacks against Israel, and the breakdown of a six-month-old Israel-Hamas truce earlier this month.
The ceasefire expired on December 19, with Hamas arguing that Israel had violated the truce by preventing vital food and medical supplies into the Strip.
Ayman Mohyeldin, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Gaza, said: "A series of explosions were heard over Gaza City.
"From where we are, there are at least seven different clouds of smoke from the strikes. We are seeing some casualties being evacuated in cars."
Egypt has opened the Rafah crossing with the Gaza Strip to receive injured people, Egyptian officials said. Ambulances have been sent to the crossing and two Egyptian hospitals emptied to take in the wounded.
Weakened security services
Mohyeldin said that Hamas, which rule the Gaza Strip, was being held responsible by Israel for any attacks from the territory into Israel, even if they are undertaken by other Palestinian factions.
Palestinian officials called on the international community to condemn the raids [AFP]However, officials of the deposed government in Gaza which maintains law and order, while being Hamas member in the main, are separate from the group's military wing and other factions responsible for attacks into Israel.
"There is within Gaza a functioning ministry of interior that has security services, traffic control, emergency medical services," Mohyeldin reported.
"Those workers are seen as employees of the government in Gaza. So now that many of these installations have been targeted, it will have an immediate impact in terms of the law and order structure here in Gaza."
Jacky Rowland, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Jerusalem, said that Israel's decision to strike at this moment was down to Hamas withdrawing from the ceasefire and the intensified rocket fire coming from the Gaza Strip in recent days.
"In one day [in the past week] we saw 80 rockets ... which is a huge upsurge," she said.
Hamas won control of the Palestinian Legislative Council in elections in January 2005. The international community refused to accept a Hamas-led government, demanding that the faction recognise Israel and renounce violence. Economic sanctions by the EU and US followed.
Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip in June 2007 after bloody street battles against its rival, the Fatah movement. AL AZEERA
Saturday, 27 December 2008
...whose way anyway
Some agreement .....is good
but are these true?..have not check.....
Someone commented that:
Islam: Say: He is Allah, The One and Only(Al Qur’an 112:1)
Hinduism: God is only one without a second.(Chandogya Upanishad 6:2:1)
Islam: And there is none Like unto Him. (Al Qur’an 112:4)
Hinduism: There is no likeness of Him.(Shwetashvatara Upanishad 4:19 & Yajurveda 32:3) God’s form cannot be seen, no one sees Him with the eye.(Hindu book: Shwetashvatara Upanishad Chapter 4 verse 20) There is no image of God (Hindu Book: Yajurveda Chapter 32, Verse 3) “God is Verily Great.”( Hindu Book: Atharva Veda book 20 hymn chapter 58 verse 3) Brahma: One of God’s names is Brahma meaning creator. In Arabic it translates into Khaliq.
Islam has no objection to God being called Khaliq. Vishnu: One of God’s name is Vishnu meaning sustainer.
In Arabic it translates into Rabb. Islam has no objection to God being called Rabb. The Muslims prefer to call God Allah. Allah is one and singular and has no gender.
Interestingly the oldest of the Hindu Scriptures, Rigveda uses the term Allah to denote God as well. Rigveda Book 2 hymn 1 verse 11, Rigveda Book 3 hymn 30 verse 10, Rigveda Book 9 hymn 67 verse 30
...extracted from someone's comment in other blog
but are these true?..have not check.....
Someone commented that:
Islam: Say: He is Allah, The One and Only(Al Qur’an 112:1)
Hinduism: God is only one without a second.(Chandogya Upanishad 6:2:1)
Islam: And there is none Like unto Him. (Al Qur’an 112:4)
Hinduism: There is no likeness of Him.(Shwetashvatara Upanishad 4:19 & Yajurveda 32:3) God’s form cannot be seen, no one sees Him with the eye.(Hindu book: Shwetashvatara Upanishad Chapter 4 verse 20) There is no image of God (Hindu Book: Yajurveda Chapter 32, Verse 3) “God is Verily Great.”( Hindu Book: Atharva Veda book 20 hymn chapter 58 verse 3) Brahma: One of God’s names is Brahma meaning creator. In Arabic it translates into Khaliq.
Islam has no objection to God being called Khaliq. Vishnu: One of God’s name is Vishnu meaning sustainer.
In Arabic it translates into Rabb. Islam has no objection to God being called Rabb. The Muslims prefer to call God Allah. Allah is one and singular and has no gender.
Interestingly the oldest of the Hindu Scriptures, Rigveda uses the term Allah to denote God as well. Rigveda Book 2 hymn 1 verse 11, Rigveda Book 3 hymn 30 verse 10, Rigveda Book 9 hymn 67 verse 30
...extracted from someone's comment in other blog
the average speaks..who listens..
the silent majority take "panadol".. to cure
..may last for 24 hours only or 24 months..
A satisfying victory for the average Malaysian
By Cheong Suk-Wai
DEC 27 — The average Malaysian is not given to dramatics, being content with three meals a day and living peaceably with others.
On March 8 this year, however, during Malaysia's 12th general election, he put an opposition coalition crammed with greenhorn candidates 31 seats away from forming the government. He also gave it five of Malaysia's 13 states, including main cash cows Selangor, Penang and Perak.
In 1999, most Malays swung away from the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition after it arrested deputy premier Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim for corruption and sodomy. This year, BN lost the support of most Chinese and Indians who were fed up with its patronage politics and abuses of power.
BN lost 46 per cent of the popular vote, with 51 per cent of voters in Peninsular Malaysia backing the opposition coalition made up of the very-Muslim Pas, the very-Chinese DAP and the multi-racial Parti Keadilan Rakyat.
In sum, BN got 63 per cent of the ballot, its worst showing since Malaysia gained independence in 1957. The result was even worse than the one BN managed during a strife-torn period in May 1969, when it got at least 66 per cent.
So, March 8 turned assumptions about Malaysians on the head.
Those who were sure Malays would not support the DAP and PKR saw the very-Malay strongholds of Bakri in Johor, Segambut in Kuala Lumpur and Teluk Intan in Perak fall easily to the two parties.
Those who were sure non-Malays would not support Pas heard them chant: “We want to eat Panadol!” Panadol refers to the white moon on Pas' party flag. Non-Malays now see no-nonsense Pas as preferable to a government whose policemen were sorely stretched by a spike in killings, whose Islamic zealots persecuted even non-Muslims and whose education minister kept waving a keris at the Chinese.
But was March 8 a political deluge for the better?
Not quite. At best, it was a warning to BN to serve the people pronto, although little will change unless patronage-bloated Umno changes. At worst, it was just an “anything goes” knee-jerk.
Meanwhile, the opposition coalition may soon fall apart over Pas' insisting that hudud (Islamic criminal law, which includes hand-severing penalties) be enforced should the opposition seize power.
March 8 was a small, but satisfying win, for the average Malaysian, who showed himself to be more mature than his political masters. — Straits Times
..may last for 24 hours only or 24 months..
A satisfying victory for the average Malaysian
By Cheong Suk-Wai
DEC 27 — The average Malaysian is not given to dramatics, being content with three meals a day and living peaceably with others.
On March 8 this year, however, during Malaysia's 12th general election, he put an opposition coalition crammed with greenhorn candidates 31 seats away from forming the government. He also gave it five of Malaysia's 13 states, including main cash cows Selangor, Penang and Perak.
In 1999, most Malays swung away from the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition after it arrested deputy premier Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim for corruption and sodomy. This year, BN lost the support of most Chinese and Indians who were fed up with its patronage politics and abuses of power.
BN lost 46 per cent of the popular vote, with 51 per cent of voters in Peninsular Malaysia backing the opposition coalition made up of the very-Muslim Pas, the very-Chinese DAP and the multi-racial Parti Keadilan Rakyat.
In sum, BN got 63 per cent of the ballot, its worst showing since Malaysia gained independence in 1957. The result was even worse than the one BN managed during a strife-torn period in May 1969, when it got at least 66 per cent.
So, March 8 turned assumptions about Malaysians on the head.
Those who were sure Malays would not support the DAP and PKR saw the very-Malay strongholds of Bakri in Johor, Segambut in Kuala Lumpur and Teluk Intan in Perak fall easily to the two parties.
Those who were sure non-Malays would not support Pas heard them chant: “We want to eat Panadol!” Panadol refers to the white moon on Pas' party flag. Non-Malays now see no-nonsense Pas as preferable to a government whose policemen were sorely stretched by a spike in killings, whose Islamic zealots persecuted even non-Muslims and whose education minister kept waving a keris at the Chinese.
But was March 8 a political deluge for the better?
Not quite. At best, it was a warning to BN to serve the people pronto, although little will change unless patronage-bloated Umno changes. At worst, it was just an “anything goes” knee-jerk.
Meanwhile, the opposition coalition may soon fall apart over Pas' insisting that hudud (Islamic criminal law, which includes hand-severing penalties) be enforced should the opposition seize power.
March 8 was a small, but satisfying win, for the average Malaysian, who showed himself to be more mature than his political masters. — Straits Times
Thursday, 25 December 2008
अ सिटी दिविदे...
जेरुसलेम:
The city has a history that goes back to the 4th millennium BCE, making it one of the oldest cities in the world.[5] Jerusalem has been the holiest city in Judaism and the spiritual center of the Jewish people since the 10th century BCE,[6] contains a number of significant ancient Christian sites, and is considered the third-holiest city in Islam.[7] Despite having an area of only 0.9 square kilometer (0.35 square mile),[8] the Old City is home to sites of key religious importance, among them the Temple Mount, the Western Wall, the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, the Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa Mosque. The old walled city, a World Heritage site, has been traditionally divided into four quarters, although the names used today — the Armenian, Christian, Jewish, and Muslim Quarters — were introduced in the early 19th century
help the weak..
VATICAN CITY – Pope Benedict XVI celebrated Christmas Midnight Mass early Thursday by sending out an appeal for children who are abused, forced to live on the street or serve as soldiers.
In the splendor of St. Peter's Basilica, Benedict marked the birth of Jesus with a call to the faithful to help children who are denied the love of their parents and those who are exploited across the world.
"The Child of Bethlehem summons us once again to do everything in our power to put an end to the suffering of these children," he said.
In the splendor of St. Peter's Basilica, Benedict marked the birth of Jesus with a call to the faithful to help children who are denied the love of their parents and those who are exploited across the world.
"The Child of Bethlehem summons us once again to do everything in our power to put an end to the suffering of these children," he said.
Sunday, 21 December 2008
clearly something is wrong ...
Fight and fight...over what is ...
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 20 — Call it fate, call it irony, but it did not escape notice that the four who died in the tragic Bukit Antarabangsa landslide two weeks ago belonged to different races. One was Malay, one Chinese, one Indian and one a foreigner, an Indonesian.
“The landslide that hit us today did not choose the race of its victims,” The Star's chief editor Wong Chun Wai wrote in his blog that day.
That should have been an unexceptional statement. But in Malaysia, it seemed significant because of the country's racial divisions, which seem to have deepened since the March general election.
Hardly a day goes by without the newspapers being awash with reports on heated issues like vernacular schools. Commentaries often veer close to being outright racist diatribes.
The heated rhetoric reflects the changing status quo. On the one hand, non-Malays have stopped holding their tongue on race relations, discomfiting many Malays who are used to non-Malays being acquiescent. On the other, the Malays resent the perception that the non-Malay viewpoint is always legitimate while Malay opinion is always racist.
It is not clear how widespread this Malay sentiment is. Liberal Malays tend to see it as an Umno ploy to scare the Malays who had abandoned the ruling coalition for the opposition.
Having scaled to the top of their chosen field, liberal Malays are bemused that Malay politicians are still banging the drum of “Ketuanan Melayu” or Malay supremacy. They resent how it has created the stereotype of even successful Malays as the “handout guys”.
“In Malaysia, meritocracy has become a bad word,” complained Malek Ali, a graduate of the University of Bristol and Harvard University. For this reason, he chose to join the law firm of Allen & Overy in London — “to get those badges of credibility”, he said. He now runs a private radio station.
But there are also Malays who insist that it would be a mistake to attribute Malay angst solely to Umno's politicking. Former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has repeatedly said that the wider Malay ground holds a deep sense of grievance.
Ibrahim Suffian, director of the independent pollster Merdeka Centre, said that there is indeed a group of highly-educated Malays who support complete meritocracy. But there is a larger group of middle-class Malays who, while not buying into the notion of Malay supremacy, still harbour anxiety over the achievement gap between Malays and the other races.
Ibrahim's perception is backed by a private poll his centre conducted several months ago. The survey, according to The Malaysian Insider website, showed that 65 per cent of Malays agreed that race-based affirmative action policies should be scrapped. (Eighty-three per cent of Chinese, and 89 per cent of Indians said the same.)
The website did not report the rest of the survey but The Straits Times understands that further responses showed that the Malays were not keen to scrap affirmative action policies if that meant their replacement with full meritocracy. Many Malays thought affirmative action should be extended to other communities on a needs basis, provided Malays themselves did not lose out in the process.
In short, the majority of Malays do not support Malay supremacy as such; they are aware of the problems of the other communities; and dislike the abuse of pro-Malay policies to benefit politically-connected Malays. At the same time, they believe these policies should be retained, since they benefit Malays.
A former Malay newspaper editor believed that Malay anger had more to do with the tone of recent political debates. These have appeared to question the legitimacy of Malay political leadership, he felt.
“A lot of Malays feel that the sacrifices they have made are being denied,” he said, referring to the “social contract” at the time of Malayan independence in 1957, which gave non-Malays citizenship while recognising the special position of the Malays.
He said certain blogs had even questioned whether Malays existed as a race or merely as a cultural concept. The idea of a Malay land (Tanah Melayu) has been traduced as well.
“This is hurtful,” he said.
It is not surprising that all this has exacerbated the sense of Malay insecurity. That is a constant in Malaysian politics since it has been assiduously fanned by a political system where parties benefit from taking a racial line. Ironically, the same system that has ensured Malays benefited from government patronage and from access to state contracts, has sharpened their sense of entitlement — and thus the sense of insecurity.
One Malay writer put it thus: “We have been brought up on a diet of dependence.”
The political landscape that changed dramatically after the March general election has also heightened the insecurity.
In the past, it was Umno — and to some extent, its rival Pas — that carried the banner of Malay rights. But Umno has become weak, and Pas now plays second fiddle to the multiracial Parti Keadilan Rakyat within the opposition coalition Pakataan Rakyat.
Surveys have shown that the Malays are wary of PKR. In some Malay eyes, the party has done too much to prove its multiracial credentials. It did prove in the general election that a non-racial political stance can be a winning electoral formula, but it has not convinced Malays that this will not be at their expense.
Many political observers have noted that contrary to popular perception, things will not change simply by getting rid of Umno.
For example, Ibrahim noted that many professional Malays in Pas share the same concerns as the professionals in Umno, and have in fact wanted closer ties with the ruling party.
In the meantime, many have offered solutions to these perennial problems in Malaysian politics — from inculcating a greater understanding of the concerns of other races to refashioning the image of Malays as being incapable of competing without government assistance.
So far, none of the political parties have seen fit to apply any of the proposed solutions. — Straits Times Singapore
"""On the other, the Malays resent the perception that the non-Malay viewpoint is always legitimate while Malay opinion is always racist.""" Non-Malay is asking for equality while UMNO asking for inequality. Then you guys tell me which one is racist? And which one is more based on Islamic values? ..a coment add and says...
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 20 — Call it fate, call it irony, but it did not escape notice that the four who died in the tragic Bukit Antarabangsa landslide two weeks ago belonged to different races. One was Malay, one Chinese, one Indian and one a foreigner, an Indonesian.
“The landslide that hit us today did not choose the race of its victims,” The Star's chief editor Wong Chun Wai wrote in his blog that day.
That should have been an unexceptional statement. But in Malaysia, it seemed significant because of the country's racial divisions, which seem to have deepened since the March general election.
Hardly a day goes by without the newspapers being awash with reports on heated issues like vernacular schools. Commentaries often veer close to being outright racist diatribes.
The heated rhetoric reflects the changing status quo. On the one hand, non-Malays have stopped holding their tongue on race relations, discomfiting many Malays who are used to non-Malays being acquiescent. On the other, the Malays resent the perception that the non-Malay viewpoint is always legitimate while Malay opinion is always racist.
It is not clear how widespread this Malay sentiment is. Liberal Malays tend to see it as an Umno ploy to scare the Malays who had abandoned the ruling coalition for the opposition.
Having scaled to the top of their chosen field, liberal Malays are bemused that Malay politicians are still banging the drum of “Ketuanan Melayu” or Malay supremacy. They resent how it has created the stereotype of even successful Malays as the “handout guys”.
“In Malaysia, meritocracy has become a bad word,” complained Malek Ali, a graduate of the University of Bristol and Harvard University. For this reason, he chose to join the law firm of Allen & Overy in London — “to get those badges of credibility”, he said. He now runs a private radio station.
But there are also Malays who insist that it would be a mistake to attribute Malay angst solely to Umno's politicking. Former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has repeatedly said that the wider Malay ground holds a deep sense of grievance.
Ibrahim Suffian, director of the independent pollster Merdeka Centre, said that there is indeed a group of highly-educated Malays who support complete meritocracy. But there is a larger group of middle-class Malays who, while not buying into the notion of Malay supremacy, still harbour anxiety over the achievement gap between Malays and the other races.
Ibrahim's perception is backed by a private poll his centre conducted several months ago. The survey, according to The Malaysian Insider website, showed that 65 per cent of Malays agreed that race-based affirmative action policies should be scrapped. (Eighty-three per cent of Chinese, and 89 per cent of Indians said the same.)
The website did not report the rest of the survey but The Straits Times understands that further responses showed that the Malays were not keen to scrap affirmative action policies if that meant their replacement with full meritocracy. Many Malays thought affirmative action should be extended to other communities on a needs basis, provided Malays themselves did not lose out in the process.
In short, the majority of Malays do not support Malay supremacy as such; they are aware of the problems of the other communities; and dislike the abuse of pro-Malay policies to benefit politically-connected Malays. At the same time, they believe these policies should be retained, since they benefit Malays.
A former Malay newspaper editor believed that Malay anger had more to do with the tone of recent political debates. These have appeared to question the legitimacy of Malay political leadership, he felt.
“A lot of Malays feel that the sacrifices they have made are being denied,” he said, referring to the “social contract” at the time of Malayan independence in 1957, which gave non-Malays citizenship while recognising the special position of the Malays.
He said certain blogs had even questioned whether Malays existed as a race or merely as a cultural concept. The idea of a Malay land (Tanah Melayu) has been traduced as well.
“This is hurtful,” he said.
It is not surprising that all this has exacerbated the sense of Malay insecurity. That is a constant in Malaysian politics since it has been assiduously fanned by a political system where parties benefit from taking a racial line. Ironically, the same system that has ensured Malays benefited from government patronage and from access to state contracts, has sharpened their sense of entitlement — and thus the sense of insecurity.
One Malay writer put it thus: “We have been brought up on a diet of dependence.”
The political landscape that changed dramatically after the March general election has also heightened the insecurity.
In the past, it was Umno — and to some extent, its rival Pas — that carried the banner of Malay rights. But Umno has become weak, and Pas now plays second fiddle to the multiracial Parti Keadilan Rakyat within the opposition coalition Pakataan Rakyat.
Surveys have shown that the Malays are wary of PKR. In some Malay eyes, the party has done too much to prove its multiracial credentials. It did prove in the general election that a non-racial political stance can be a winning electoral formula, but it has not convinced Malays that this will not be at their expense.
Many political observers have noted that contrary to popular perception, things will not change simply by getting rid of Umno.
For example, Ibrahim noted that many professional Malays in Pas share the same concerns as the professionals in Umno, and have in fact wanted closer ties with the ruling party.
In the meantime, many have offered solutions to these perennial problems in Malaysian politics — from inculcating a greater understanding of the concerns of other races to refashioning the image of Malays as being incapable of competing without government assistance.
So far, none of the political parties have seen fit to apply any of the proposed solutions. — Straits Times Singapore
"""On the other, the Malays resent the perception that the non-Malay viewpoint is always legitimate while Malay opinion is always racist.""" Non-Malay is asking for equality while UMNO asking for inequality. Then you guys tell me which one is racist? And which one is more based on Islamic values? ..a coment add and says...
say and say....
only an opinion...
In his interview with Sin Chew Daily in the past two days, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi made the most sensible and commendable comments on nation-building in Malaysia.
The greatest pity is that he did not adopt them when he has the real power to influence the government and nation in his heyday as Prime Minister.
Firstly, in “Change Or Perish, Pak Lah Tells UMNO”, Sin Chew reported:
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said the Malays have changed their old thinking and value system, only that UMNO seems to have “forgotten” that the Malays have indeed changed.
He said the Malays have changed, but if UMNO remains unwilling to change, then the party will eventually head for destruction.
“UMNO has forgotten that the Malays have changed their own thinking and perspectives. It has forgotten that the Malays have changed their value system. The Malays are no longer what they used to be. They unreservedly express themselves. They even wave the DAP flags!”
Abdullah said during an exclusive interview with Sin Chew Daily at his private residence in Kuala Lumpur that during his five-year tenure as the prime minister, he has managed to change the mentality of the Malays.
He said young Malays believe they can stand on their own feet, and this is the major value that has changed the young Malays today.
“Young Malays feel that they need the opportunities, so they begin talking about DAP and PKR. They believe they have better opportunities there.”
Secondly, in “Pak Lah: NEP No Longer In Existence”, Sin Chew reported:
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi emphasised that the New Economic Policy is no longer in existence today.
“The NEP is a policy which is no longer in existence. The objective of this policy has been to eradicate poverty, as you all know.”
He said during an exclusive interview with Sin Chew Daily at his private residence in Kuala Lumpur that the way the NEP was implemented had triggered the dissatisfaction among many people, including some Malays, adding that Malaysians needed a more transparent policy and open market.
The first question is whether the rest of the Umno leadership, led by the Umno President-elect and Prime Minister-in-waiting, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, are prepared to publicly endorse Abdullah’s “Umno – Change or Perish” analysis – accepting the reality that when Malays support the DAP or PKR, it is not because they are traitors to the Malay race but because they reject the political fallacy equating “UMNO with Malays and Malays with UMNO”, regarding themselves as Malaysians first and Malays second, just as their other Malaysian counterparts who must regard themselves as Malaysians first and Chinese, Indians, Kadazans or Ibans second!
Similarly, does the rest of the Umno leadership led by Najib accept that the New Economic Policy “no longer exists” as it is a specific policy meant for 20 years from 1970 and 1990, although the objectives of eradication of poverty regardless of race and restructuring of society to reflect the country’s multi-racial character in all sectors of society should be continuing programmes.
If this had been Abdullah’s clear-cut nation-building policy and philosophy from the first day he took over as Prime Minister five years ago, the country would have spared many nation-building crises arising from high-handed, arbitrary, hegemonic and most divisive extension of the New Economic Policy till 2020, giving rise to keris-wielding excesses and “ketuanan Melayu” demands.
Will Najib and the rest of the Umno leadership endorse Abdullah’s most sensible philosophy on nation-building, viz:
· that Malays have changed including supporting the DAP to further the legitimate aspirations of the Malays and that UMNO will perish unless Umno could also change; and
· that the New Economic Policy is no longer in existence and the country should no longer be divided by irresponsible calls for the extension of the NEP while the country should continue with its national objectives of poverty eradication and multi-racialisation?
In his interview with Sin Chew Daily in the past two days, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi made the most sensible and commendable comments on nation-building in Malaysia.
The greatest pity is that he did not adopt them when he has the real power to influence the government and nation in his heyday as Prime Minister.
Firstly, in “Change Or Perish, Pak Lah Tells UMNO”, Sin Chew reported:
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said the Malays have changed their old thinking and value system, only that UMNO seems to have “forgotten” that the Malays have indeed changed.
He said the Malays have changed, but if UMNO remains unwilling to change, then the party will eventually head for destruction.
“UMNO has forgotten that the Malays have changed their own thinking and perspectives. It has forgotten that the Malays have changed their value system. The Malays are no longer what they used to be. They unreservedly express themselves. They even wave the DAP flags!”
Abdullah said during an exclusive interview with Sin Chew Daily at his private residence in Kuala Lumpur that during his five-year tenure as the prime minister, he has managed to change the mentality of the Malays.
He said young Malays believe they can stand on their own feet, and this is the major value that has changed the young Malays today.
“Young Malays feel that they need the opportunities, so they begin talking about DAP and PKR. They believe they have better opportunities there.”
Secondly, in “Pak Lah: NEP No Longer In Existence”, Sin Chew reported:
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi emphasised that the New Economic Policy is no longer in existence today.
“The NEP is a policy which is no longer in existence. The objective of this policy has been to eradicate poverty, as you all know.”
He said during an exclusive interview with Sin Chew Daily at his private residence in Kuala Lumpur that the way the NEP was implemented had triggered the dissatisfaction among many people, including some Malays, adding that Malaysians needed a more transparent policy and open market.
The first question is whether the rest of the Umno leadership, led by the Umno President-elect and Prime Minister-in-waiting, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, are prepared to publicly endorse Abdullah’s “Umno – Change or Perish” analysis – accepting the reality that when Malays support the DAP or PKR, it is not because they are traitors to the Malay race but because they reject the political fallacy equating “UMNO with Malays and Malays with UMNO”, regarding themselves as Malaysians first and Malays second, just as their other Malaysian counterparts who must regard themselves as Malaysians first and Chinese, Indians, Kadazans or Ibans second!
Similarly, does the rest of the Umno leadership led by Najib accept that the New Economic Policy “no longer exists” as it is a specific policy meant for 20 years from 1970 and 1990, although the objectives of eradication of poverty regardless of race and restructuring of society to reflect the country’s multi-racial character in all sectors of society should be continuing programmes.
If this had been Abdullah’s clear-cut nation-building policy and philosophy from the first day he took over as Prime Minister five years ago, the country would have spared many nation-building crises arising from high-handed, arbitrary, hegemonic and most divisive extension of the New Economic Policy till 2020, giving rise to keris-wielding excesses and “ketuanan Melayu” demands.
Will Najib and the rest of the Umno leadership endorse Abdullah’s most sensible philosophy on nation-building, viz:
· that Malays have changed including supporting the DAP to further the legitimate aspirations of the Malays and that UMNO will perish unless Umno could also change; and
· that the New Economic Policy is no longer in existence and the country should no longer be divided by irresponsible calls for the extension of the NEP while the country should continue with its national objectives of poverty eradication and multi-racialisation?
careless my daughter..
what's more important..
CAIRO (Reuters) – An Egyptian man said on Wednesday he was offering his 20-year-old daughter in marriage to Iraqi journalist Muntazer al-Zaidi, who threw his shoes at U.S. President George W. Bush in Baghdad on Sunday,
The daughter, Amal Saad Gumaa, said she agreed with the idea. "This is something that would honor me. I would like to live in Iraq, especially if I were attached to this hero," she told Reuters by telephone.
Her father, Saad Gumaa, said he had called Dergham, Zaidi's brother, to tell him of the offer. "I find nothing more valuable than my daughter to offer to him, and I am prepared to provide her with everything needed for marriage," he added.
Zaidi's gesture has struck a chord across the Arab world, where President Bush is widely despised for invading Iraq in 2003 and for his support for Israel.
Amal is a student in the media faculty at Minya University in central Egypt.
CAIRO (Reuters) – An Egyptian man said on Wednesday he was offering his 20-year-old daughter in marriage to Iraqi journalist Muntazer al-Zaidi, who threw his shoes at U.S. President George W. Bush in Baghdad on Sunday,
The daughter, Amal Saad Gumaa, said she agreed with the idea. "This is something that would honor me. I would like to live in Iraq, especially if I were attached to this hero," she told Reuters by telephone.
Her father, Saad Gumaa, said he had called Dergham, Zaidi's brother, to tell him of the offer. "I find nothing more valuable than my daughter to offer to him, and I am prepared to provide her with everything needed for marriage," he added.
Zaidi's gesture has struck a chord across the Arab world, where President Bush is widely despised for invading Iraq in 2003 and for his support for Israel.
Amal is a student in the media faculty at Minya University in central Egypt.
a way forward....
Remarks of the President-Elect Barack Obama
Science Team Rollout Radio Address
Friday, December 17, 2008
Chicago, Illinois
Over the past few weeks, Vice President-Elect Biden and I have announced some of the leaders who will advise us as we seek to meet America’s twenty-first century challenges, from strengthening our security, to rebuilding our economy, to preserving our planet for our children and grandchildren. Today, I am pleased to announce members of my science and technology team whose work will be critical to these efforts.
Whether it’s the science to slow global warming; the technology to protect our troops and confront bioterror and weapons of mass destruction; the research to find life-saving cures; or the innovations to remake our industries and create twenty-first century jobs—today, more than ever before, science holds the key to our survival as a planet and our security and prosperity as a nation. It is time we once again put science at the top of our agenda and worked to restore America’s place as the world leader in science and technology.
Right now, in labs, classrooms and companies across America, our leading minds are hard at work chasing the next big idea, on the cusp of breakthroughs that could revolutionize our lives. But history tells us that they cannot do it alone. From landing on the moon, to sequencing the human genome, to inventing the Internet, America has been the first to cross that new frontier because we had leaders who paved the way: leaders like President Kennedy, who inspired us to push the boundaries of the known world and achieve the impossible; leaders who not only invested in our scientists, but who respected the integrity of the scientific process.
Because the truth is that promoting science isn’t just about providing resources—it’s about protecting free and open inquiry. It’s about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology. It’s about listening to what our scientists have to say, even when it’s inconvenient—especially when it’s inconvenient. Because the highest purpose of science is the search for knowledge, truth and a greater understanding of the world around us. That will be my goal as President of the United States—and I could not have a better team to guide me in this work.
Dr. John Holdren has agreed to serve as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. John is a professor and Director of the Program on Science, Technology, and Public Policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, as well as President and Director of the Woods Hole Research Center. A physicist renowned for his work on climate and energy, he’s received numerous honors and awards for his contributions and has been one of the most passionate and persistent voices of our time about the growing threat of climate change. I look forward to his wise counsel in the years ahead.
John will also serve as a Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology—or PCAST—as will Dr. Harold Varmus and Dr. Eric Lander. Together, they will work to remake PCAST into a vigorous external advisory council that will shape my thinking on the scientific aspects of my policy priorities.
Dr. Varmus is no stranger to this work. He is not just a path-breaking scientist, having won a Nobel Prize for his research on the causes of cancer—he also served as Director of the National Institutes of Health during the Clinton Administration. I am grateful he has answered the call to serve once again.
Dr. Eric Lander is the Founding Director of the Broad Institute at MIT and Harvard and was one of the driving forces behind mapping the human genome—one of the greatest scientific achievements in history. I know he will be a powerful voice in my Administration as we seek to find the causes and cures of our most devastating diseases.
Finally, Dr. Jane Lubchenco has accepted my nomination as the Administrator of NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is devoted to conserving our marine and coastal resources and monitoring our weather. An internationally known environmental scientist and ecologist and former President of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Jane has advised the President and Congress on scientific matters, and I am confident she will provide passionate and dedicated leadership at NOAA.
Working with these leaders, we will seek to draw on the power of science to both meet our challenges across the globe and revitalize our economy here at home. And I’ll be speaking more after the New Year about how my Administration will engage leaders in the technology community and harness technology and innovation to create jobs, enhance America’s competitiveness and advance our national priorities.
I am confident that if we recommit ourselves to discovery; if we support science education to create the next generation of scientists and engineers right here in America; if we have the vision to believe and invest in things unseen, then we can lead the world into a new future of peace and prosperity.
Thank you.
Science Team Rollout Radio Address
Friday, December 17, 2008
Chicago, Illinois
Over the past few weeks, Vice President-Elect Biden and I have announced some of the leaders who will advise us as we seek to meet America’s twenty-first century challenges, from strengthening our security, to rebuilding our economy, to preserving our planet for our children and grandchildren. Today, I am pleased to announce members of my science and technology team whose work will be critical to these efforts.
Whether it’s the science to slow global warming; the technology to protect our troops and confront bioterror and weapons of mass destruction; the research to find life-saving cures; or the innovations to remake our industries and create twenty-first century jobs—today, more than ever before, science holds the key to our survival as a planet and our security and prosperity as a nation. It is time we once again put science at the top of our agenda and worked to restore America’s place as the world leader in science and technology.
Right now, in labs, classrooms and companies across America, our leading minds are hard at work chasing the next big idea, on the cusp of breakthroughs that could revolutionize our lives. But history tells us that they cannot do it alone. From landing on the moon, to sequencing the human genome, to inventing the Internet, America has been the first to cross that new frontier because we had leaders who paved the way: leaders like President Kennedy, who inspired us to push the boundaries of the known world and achieve the impossible; leaders who not only invested in our scientists, but who respected the integrity of the scientific process.
Because the truth is that promoting science isn’t just about providing resources—it’s about protecting free and open inquiry. It’s about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology. It’s about listening to what our scientists have to say, even when it’s inconvenient—especially when it’s inconvenient. Because the highest purpose of science is the search for knowledge, truth and a greater understanding of the world around us. That will be my goal as President of the United States—and I could not have a better team to guide me in this work.
Dr. John Holdren has agreed to serve as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. John is a professor and Director of the Program on Science, Technology, and Public Policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, as well as President and Director of the Woods Hole Research Center. A physicist renowned for his work on climate and energy, he’s received numerous honors and awards for his contributions and has been one of the most passionate and persistent voices of our time about the growing threat of climate change. I look forward to his wise counsel in the years ahead.
John will also serve as a Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology—or PCAST—as will Dr. Harold Varmus and Dr. Eric Lander. Together, they will work to remake PCAST into a vigorous external advisory council that will shape my thinking on the scientific aspects of my policy priorities.
Dr. Varmus is no stranger to this work. He is not just a path-breaking scientist, having won a Nobel Prize for his research on the causes of cancer—he also served as Director of the National Institutes of Health during the Clinton Administration. I am grateful he has answered the call to serve once again.
Dr. Eric Lander is the Founding Director of the Broad Institute at MIT and Harvard and was one of the driving forces behind mapping the human genome—one of the greatest scientific achievements in history. I know he will be a powerful voice in my Administration as we seek to find the causes and cures of our most devastating diseases.
Finally, Dr. Jane Lubchenco has accepted my nomination as the Administrator of NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is devoted to conserving our marine and coastal resources and monitoring our weather. An internationally known environmental scientist and ecologist and former President of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Jane has advised the President and Congress on scientific matters, and I am confident she will provide passionate and dedicated leadership at NOAA.
Working with these leaders, we will seek to draw on the power of science to both meet our challenges across the globe and revitalize our economy here at home. And I’ll be speaking more after the New Year about how my Administration will engage leaders in the technology community and harness technology and innovation to create jobs, enhance America’s competitiveness and advance our national priorities.
I am confident that if we recommit ourselves to discovery; if we support science education to create the next generation of scientists and engineers right here in America; if we have the vision to believe and invest in things unseen, then we can lead the world into a new future of peace and prosperity.
Thank you.
Saturday, 20 December 2008
they will not comply..
You can only try.....
N Korea
Rice praised negotiations for leading to the shutting-down of the Yongbyon reactor
Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, has said only an "idiot" would trust North Korean promises that it has abandoned its nuclear programmes.
Her comments came amid ongoing controversy over Pyongyang's refusal to define how its progress on dismantling its nuclear facilities will be measured.
It had agreed to end its nuclear work as part of an agreement reached with the US in 2005, but the process has stalled over the row.
"Nobody was trusting of the North Koreans. I mean, who trusts the North Koreans?" Rice said, according to a transcript released by the US state department on Friday.
"You'd have to be an idiot to trust the North Koreans."That's why we have a verification protocol that we are negotiating."
Her original remarks provoked laughter from an audience of foreign policy experts and students at the Council of Foreign Relations in Washington on Wednesday. Rice said Pyongyang had agreed to a verification protocol but had refused to write down some of its negotiators' verbal assurances clarifying the document's "ambiguities".Fuel aid dealSix-party talks broke down over the issue last month, but Rice seemed positive that the US, South Korea, and Japan still had leverage over the impoverished nation under a deal which promises fuel aid in exchange for nuclear concessions.
"I think that within the context of the six-party talks, you ultimately will get a verification protocol that allows us to deal with a lot of very troubling activities"
Condoleezza Rice,US secretary of state"... the fuel oil shipments that they need, they need not just from the United States but also from South Korea, since South Korea has made clear that their relationship with North Korea depends in part on how denuclearisation goes," she said.Rice also defended the negotiations, saying that, as a result, North Korea had not produced any plutonium since 2005 and had begun to disable its nuclear complex at Yongbyon.
She said it had also turned over thousands of pages of documents as well as some samples that "have led us to be more suspicious of some things that they might be doing".Rice predicted that there would eventually be progress on the verification issue.
"I think that within the context of the six-party talks, you ultimately will get a verification protocol that allows us to deal with a lot of very troubling activities," she said."This is a process that still has a lot of life in it ... North Korea negotiates this way sometimes in ups and downs
N Korea
Rice praised negotiations for leading to the shutting-down of the Yongbyon reactor
Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, has said only an "idiot" would trust North Korean promises that it has abandoned its nuclear programmes.
Her comments came amid ongoing controversy over Pyongyang's refusal to define how its progress on dismantling its nuclear facilities will be measured.
It had agreed to end its nuclear work as part of an agreement reached with the US in 2005, but the process has stalled over the row.
"Nobody was trusting of the North Koreans. I mean, who trusts the North Koreans?" Rice said, according to a transcript released by the US state department on Friday.
"You'd have to be an idiot to trust the North Koreans."That's why we have a verification protocol that we are negotiating."
Her original remarks provoked laughter from an audience of foreign policy experts and students at the Council of Foreign Relations in Washington on Wednesday. Rice said Pyongyang had agreed to a verification protocol but had refused to write down some of its negotiators' verbal assurances clarifying the document's "ambiguities".Fuel aid dealSix-party talks broke down over the issue last month, but Rice seemed positive that the US, South Korea, and Japan still had leverage over the impoverished nation under a deal which promises fuel aid in exchange for nuclear concessions.
"I think that within the context of the six-party talks, you ultimately will get a verification protocol that allows us to deal with a lot of very troubling activities"
Condoleezza Rice,US secretary of state"... the fuel oil shipments that they need, they need not just from the United States but also from South Korea, since South Korea has made clear that their relationship with North Korea depends in part on how denuclearisation goes," she said.Rice also defended the negotiations, saying that, as a result, North Korea had not produced any plutonium since 2005 and had begun to disable its nuclear complex at Yongbyon.
She said it had also turned over thousands of pages of documents as well as some samples that "have led us to be more suspicious of some things that they might be doing".Rice predicted that there would eventually be progress on the verification issue.
"I think that within the context of the six-party talks, you ultimately will get a verification protocol that allows us to deal with a lot of very troubling activities," she said."This is a process that still has a lot of life in it ... North Korea negotiates this way sometimes in ups and downs
and now, its too much oil...
PROBLEMS !!!!!
Glut of oil creates short-term storage problems
NEW YORK, Dec 20 — Traders locking up storage space for crude created a huge rift in prices yesterday between oil that must be delivered in several weeks and oil that can be taken in February.
The January contract for crude expired yesterday and with stockpiles rising at the key storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma, the price dropped close to a five-year low as brokers and traders attempted to unload supply for whatever price they could get.
"If you could find storage for it, it's a way to get rich real quickly," said Peter Beutel, an analyst with Cameron Hanover.
With space tight amid a glut in supply, light, sweet crude for January delivery fell US$2.35 to settle at US$33.87, a level last seen in early 2004.
Most traders focused on the February contract, however, which rose 69 cents to settle at US$42.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Because crude contracts bought for February also bought more time to find storage, it sold at a premium of more than US$7 a barrel compared contracts expiring yesterday.
While the January price was largely discounted because the volumes were so low, analyst Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates, said it did provide a downside target for future sales.
The market is sending strong signals that an oversupplied market will remain in place for some time, he said.
"I think it's going to work its way down to today's lows in the January futures," Ritterbusch said.
Consumers and industries are consuming much less energy than they had before the United States went into recession last December. That has led to enormous volatility in crude markets, a topic of discussion yesterday from the trading floors of New York to a gathering of world leaders in London.
At an energy summit yesterday in London, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown warned that a failure to stabilise oil prices could cost the global economy trillions.
"Wild fluctuations in market prices harm nations all round the world," Brown said. "They damage consumers and producers alike."
Opec secretary-general Abdullah El-Badri acknowledged the problem.
"We all know that extreme oil prices whether too high or too low are as bad for producers as they are for consumers," El-Badri said.
Meanwhile, Zeljko Bogetic, the World Bank's chief economist in Russia, told investors that the oil-rich nation would come under crippling financial pressure and may need to take out loans if crude prices do not rebound.
"If oil prices in 2009 and 2010 average US$30 a barrel, that would be a nightmare scenario for a global economy," Bogetic said.
Russia, which has used oil profits during the past eight years to pay down most of its foreign debt, could turn from creditor to borrower if current trends continue.
At US$50 a barrel, Russia could drain much of its reserve funds and run budgetary deficits, Bogetic said.
Earlier this week, the 13-nation Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries slashed its output quota by 2.2 million barrels a day in a bid to bolster prices that have slid about 70 per cent since July.
Still, crude prices tumbled this week amid a bevy of dour economic reports suggesting demand for energy will continue to erode.
Beutel said the oil market should be growing more bullish after such huge declines, but the steady stream of bad economic news has made everyone skittish.
"Until people can just take their eyes off of the demand for five seconds, it doesn't seem like this market is going to have an easy time moving higher," Beutel said.
There was word yesterday that Opec may meet again in Kuwait on Jan 19 to discuss further production cuts.
Meanwhile, the national retail average price for a gallon of regular gas rose three-tenths of a penny to US$1.673 a gallon overnight, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express. That is about 37 cents a gallon below what it was a month ago and more than US$2.43 below where it was in July when prices peaked at US$4.11 per gallon.
Before yesterday, retail gasoline prices had fallen for 86 straight days. — AP
Glut of oil creates short-term storage problems
NEW YORK, Dec 20 — Traders locking up storage space for crude created a huge rift in prices yesterday between oil that must be delivered in several weeks and oil that can be taken in February.
The January contract for crude expired yesterday and with stockpiles rising at the key storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma, the price dropped close to a five-year low as brokers and traders attempted to unload supply for whatever price they could get.
"If you could find storage for it, it's a way to get rich real quickly," said Peter Beutel, an analyst with Cameron Hanover.
With space tight amid a glut in supply, light, sweet crude for January delivery fell US$2.35 to settle at US$33.87, a level last seen in early 2004.
Most traders focused on the February contract, however, which rose 69 cents to settle at US$42.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Because crude contracts bought for February also bought more time to find storage, it sold at a premium of more than US$7 a barrel compared contracts expiring yesterday.
While the January price was largely discounted because the volumes were so low, analyst Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates, said it did provide a downside target for future sales.
The market is sending strong signals that an oversupplied market will remain in place for some time, he said.
"I think it's going to work its way down to today's lows in the January futures," Ritterbusch said.
Consumers and industries are consuming much less energy than they had before the United States went into recession last December. That has led to enormous volatility in crude markets, a topic of discussion yesterday from the trading floors of New York to a gathering of world leaders in London.
At an energy summit yesterday in London, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown warned that a failure to stabilise oil prices could cost the global economy trillions.
"Wild fluctuations in market prices harm nations all round the world," Brown said. "They damage consumers and producers alike."
Opec secretary-general Abdullah El-Badri acknowledged the problem.
"We all know that extreme oil prices whether too high or too low are as bad for producers as they are for consumers," El-Badri said.
Meanwhile, Zeljko Bogetic, the World Bank's chief economist in Russia, told investors that the oil-rich nation would come under crippling financial pressure and may need to take out loans if crude prices do not rebound.
"If oil prices in 2009 and 2010 average US$30 a barrel, that would be a nightmare scenario for a global economy," Bogetic said.
Russia, which has used oil profits during the past eight years to pay down most of its foreign debt, could turn from creditor to borrower if current trends continue.
At US$50 a barrel, Russia could drain much of its reserve funds and run budgetary deficits, Bogetic said.
Earlier this week, the 13-nation Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries slashed its output quota by 2.2 million barrels a day in a bid to bolster prices that have slid about 70 per cent since July.
Still, crude prices tumbled this week amid a bevy of dour economic reports suggesting demand for energy will continue to erode.
Beutel said the oil market should be growing more bullish after such huge declines, but the steady stream of bad economic news has made everyone skittish.
"Until people can just take their eyes off of the demand for five seconds, it doesn't seem like this market is going to have an easy time moving higher," Beutel said.
There was word yesterday that Opec may meet again in Kuwait on Jan 19 to discuss further production cuts.
Meanwhile, the national retail average price for a gallon of regular gas rose three-tenths of a penny to US$1.673 a gallon overnight, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express. That is about 37 cents a gallon below what it was a month ago and more than US$2.43 below where it was in July when prices peaked at US$4.11 per gallon.
Before yesterday, retail gasoline prices had fallen for 86 straight days. — AP
and we support it...
Throw a shoe...sall we make it our culture too?
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 20 — Foreign Minister Datuk Rais Yatim has praised the Iraqi journalist who tossed his shoes at US President George W. Bush, saying it was the "best show of retaliation" for the US invasion of Iraq.
Rais praised "the shoe-throwing act by that remarkable reporter who gave President Bush his final farewell last week."
"That shoe-throwing episode, in my view, is truly the best weapon of mass destruction to the leader who coined the phrase 'axis of evil' to denote Iran, Iraq and North Korea," he said in a speech last night at a dinner to commemorate the 63rd anniversary of the United Nations.
Television reporter Muntadar al-Zeidi stunned observers when he threw both his shoes at Bush during a press conference in Baghdad with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Dec 14. Bush deftly ducked out of the way both times.
The reporter also shouted in Arabic, "This is your farewell kiss, you dog!" In Iraqi culture, throwing shoes at someone is a sign of deep contempt.
Al-Zeidi has been handed over to the Iraqi judiciary.
Bush has played down the incident, but the case became a rallying point among opponents of the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq. Thousands of Iraqis demonstrated yesterday for al-Zeidi's release.
A Saudi man reportedly offered US$10 million (RM36 million) for the shoes, and an Iranian cleric suggested they should become museum pieces. However, authorities said the shoes had been destroyed by investigators.
Predominantly Muslim Malaysia opposes the US-led war in Iraq, but supports Washington in its fight against global terrorism. — AP
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 20 — Foreign Minister Datuk Rais Yatim has praised the Iraqi journalist who tossed his shoes at US President George W. Bush, saying it was the "best show of retaliation" for the US invasion of Iraq.
Rais praised "the shoe-throwing act by that remarkable reporter who gave President Bush his final farewell last week."
"That shoe-throwing episode, in my view, is truly the best weapon of mass destruction to the leader who coined the phrase 'axis of evil' to denote Iran, Iraq and North Korea," he said in a speech last night at a dinner to commemorate the 63rd anniversary of the United Nations.
Television reporter Muntadar al-Zeidi stunned observers when he threw both his shoes at Bush during a press conference in Baghdad with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Dec 14. Bush deftly ducked out of the way both times.
The reporter also shouted in Arabic, "This is your farewell kiss, you dog!" In Iraqi culture, throwing shoes at someone is a sign of deep contempt.
Al-Zeidi has been handed over to the Iraqi judiciary.
Bush has played down the incident, but the case became a rallying point among opponents of the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq. Thousands of Iraqis demonstrated yesterday for al-Zeidi's release.
A Saudi man reportedly offered US$10 million (RM36 million) for the shoes, and an Iranian cleric suggested they should become museum pieces. However, authorities said the shoes had been destroyed by investigators.
Predominantly Muslim Malaysia opposes the US-led war in Iraq, but supports Washington in its fight against global terrorism. — AP
Wednesday, 17 December 2008
making it clear ...
A compromise was made ...
HM the Sultan of Selangor Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah has defined the social contract as compromise between the rulers and subjects as well as between Malays and non-Malays.He also said that the Malay community should not make accusations about their rights and position being challenged.Instead, the Malays should ask themselves if they have acted accordingly, he said while citing the recent flap over the fatwa on yoga."Malays must ask themselves why," the Sultan said."For example the yoga issue. One side speaks. Pam Pam Pam. Non-Malays start interfering. The source of it is that we are wrong for not following procedures. We make noise before we even do something correctly."We must know where the mistake is. We cannot make accusations. When we do something without following procedure everyone will be in a muddle."The Sultan was speaking in an interview with Mingguan Malaysia published today.It is the second time in a week the Sultan has spoken out on race relations and religious issues.The remarks come amid a heated debate sparked by a raft of recent public comments about race relations and the concept of Malay Supremacy.His comments are also the latest sign of a more vocal royalty which appears to be filling the vacuum left by a lack of political leadership.In the interview with Mingguan Malaysia, the Sultan was also asked his opinion on how the issue of Ketuanan Melayu, or Malay Supremacy, which the newspaper described as a concept which for the Malays, was tied to the royalty, but which the non-Malays had other views.He would not be drawn in, however, to the debate, pointing out instead that he did not know how to answer such questions because "we are the Malays, the sultans are Malays so why must it be brought up?""We must focus on more important issues such as the education, economy and income of the Malays."The Sultan said he did not understand the restlessness, as described by the newspaper, regarding Malay rights.He suggested it may all just be politics, adding: "that is why I do not understand politics. The proverb ada udang disebalik batu (having a hidden agenda), I don't understand all that."But the Sultan pointed out that it was important for the sake of race relations for the public to know their history.That was the reason why he it was his initiative to have the recent Conference of Rulers issue a statement defending the social contract, which has also been the subject of roiling debate recently.In his interview with Mingguan Malaysia, the weekend edition of the Umno-owned Utusan Malaysia daily, the Sultan spoke of the social contract that needed to be understood."Previously no one spoke of the social contract but it did not mean they were ignorant."What is the social contract? It is compromise, between the people and the royalty, the Malays with the Chinese and the Malays with the Indians."Asked about the a recent suggestion by Tunku Naquiyuddin ibni Tuanku Jaafar for royal immunity to be restored, he said it was entirely up to the public."If the people feel that I am entitled I will accept it and I will do my best. I am not making any request for it.The Sultan added that perhaps a conditional immunity should be considered."I do not agree in having immunity from paying my debts or from assaulting someone until the public does not get any justice," he said.He suggested instead that royal immunity be granted for the rulers to speak out on issues.Tunku Naquiyuddin's suggestion for a restoration of royal immunity, was described by Mingguan Malaysia an attempt to challenge Ketuanan Melayu and Malay rights, although the Negeri Sembilan regent had said only that it was to place the Malay rulers back on par with other constitutional monarchs around the world.Tunku Naquiyuddin had also argued that royal immunity needed to be "reclaimed and reinstated so that the constitutional monarchy can be restored to its full sovereignty so as to play a more fitting role in the 21st century as a guardian of the Federal Constitution."It was former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad who led the charge against constitutional monarchy in the late 1980s and 1990s. Around 1992, the media exposed the excesses of the royalty and their extravagant lifestyle.It so happened that a hockey coach was assaulted by a member of the Johor royalty. This unleashed a wave of public anger against the Rulers and culminated in Parliament, amending the Constitution and withdrawing royal immunity.The personal immunity of Rulers was removed, except for the legal process relating to the performance of their duties.Some Malaysians have also questioned the timing of Tunku Naquiyuddin's statement on reinstating the full immunity of the monarchy. His father, the Ruler of Negeri Sembilan was recently in the dock in a legal tussle with a bank.A special court ruled that Tuanku Jaafar Tuanku Abdul Rahman had to pay Standard Chartered Bank nearly US$1 million to honour his commitment in a letter of credit over a business deal.This was the first time the special court had heard a case involving a member of the royalty
HM the Sultan of Selangor Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah has defined the social contract as compromise between the rulers and subjects as well as between Malays and non-Malays.He also said that the Malay community should not make accusations about their rights and position being challenged.Instead, the Malays should ask themselves if they have acted accordingly, he said while citing the recent flap over the fatwa on yoga."Malays must ask themselves why," the Sultan said."For example the yoga issue. One side speaks. Pam Pam Pam. Non-Malays start interfering. The source of it is that we are wrong for not following procedures. We make noise before we even do something correctly."We must know where the mistake is. We cannot make accusations. When we do something without following procedure everyone will be in a muddle."The Sultan was speaking in an interview with Mingguan Malaysia published today.It is the second time in a week the Sultan has spoken out on race relations and religious issues.The remarks come amid a heated debate sparked by a raft of recent public comments about race relations and the concept of Malay Supremacy.His comments are also the latest sign of a more vocal royalty which appears to be filling the vacuum left by a lack of political leadership.In the interview with Mingguan Malaysia, the Sultan was also asked his opinion on how the issue of Ketuanan Melayu, or Malay Supremacy, which the newspaper described as a concept which for the Malays, was tied to the royalty, but which the non-Malays had other views.He would not be drawn in, however, to the debate, pointing out instead that he did not know how to answer such questions because "we are the Malays, the sultans are Malays so why must it be brought up?""We must focus on more important issues such as the education, economy and income of the Malays."The Sultan said he did not understand the restlessness, as described by the newspaper, regarding Malay rights.He suggested it may all just be politics, adding: "that is why I do not understand politics. The proverb ada udang disebalik batu (having a hidden agenda), I don't understand all that."But the Sultan pointed out that it was important for the sake of race relations for the public to know their history.That was the reason why he it was his initiative to have the recent Conference of Rulers issue a statement defending the social contract, which has also been the subject of roiling debate recently.In his interview with Mingguan Malaysia, the weekend edition of the Umno-owned Utusan Malaysia daily, the Sultan spoke of the social contract that needed to be understood."Previously no one spoke of the social contract but it did not mean they were ignorant."What is the social contract? It is compromise, between the people and the royalty, the Malays with the Chinese and the Malays with the Indians."Asked about the a recent suggestion by Tunku Naquiyuddin ibni Tuanku Jaafar for royal immunity to be restored, he said it was entirely up to the public."If the people feel that I am entitled I will accept it and I will do my best. I am not making any request for it.The Sultan added that perhaps a conditional immunity should be considered."I do not agree in having immunity from paying my debts or from assaulting someone until the public does not get any justice," he said.He suggested instead that royal immunity be granted for the rulers to speak out on issues.Tunku Naquiyuddin's suggestion for a restoration of royal immunity, was described by Mingguan Malaysia an attempt to challenge Ketuanan Melayu and Malay rights, although the Negeri Sembilan regent had said only that it was to place the Malay rulers back on par with other constitutional monarchs around the world.Tunku Naquiyuddin had also argued that royal immunity needed to be "reclaimed and reinstated so that the constitutional monarchy can be restored to its full sovereignty so as to play a more fitting role in the 21st century as a guardian of the Federal Constitution."It was former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad who led the charge against constitutional monarchy in the late 1980s and 1990s. Around 1992, the media exposed the excesses of the royalty and their extravagant lifestyle.It so happened that a hockey coach was assaulted by a member of the Johor royalty. This unleashed a wave of public anger against the Rulers and culminated in Parliament, amending the Constitution and withdrawing royal immunity.The personal immunity of Rulers was removed, except for the legal process relating to the performance of their duties.Some Malaysians have also questioned the timing of Tunku Naquiyuddin's statement on reinstating the full immunity of the monarchy. His father, the Ruler of Negeri Sembilan was recently in the dock in a legal tussle with a bank.A special court ruled that Tuanku Jaafar Tuanku Abdul Rahman had to pay Standard Chartered Bank nearly US$1 million to honour his commitment in a letter of credit over a business deal.This was the first time the special court had heard a case involving a member of the royalty
the majority needs protection...
Hindraf activists launch protest
Dec 14 - About 20 Hindraf activists launched a protest fast on Sunday to demand the release of their leaders who have been imprisoned without trial for allegedly threatening racial stability.The protesters began consuming only water outside a Hindu temple in Kuala Lumpur, but there was no consensus about how long they will continue the fast, said Mr S. Jayathas, a member of the Hindu Rights Action Force."We want the government to listen to us and look into our legitimate rights," Mr Jayathas said.The group shot to prominence in November 2007 when it led tens of thousands of Indians in a rare street protest seeking an end to policies benefiting the Malay Muslim majority and to gain better opportunities for Indians, who form the bottom rung of Malaysia's social ladder.The protest marks the first anniversary of the jailing of five of the group's leaders last December under a tough security law that allows indefinite detention without trial.The government has also since banned the group, accusing it of inciting racial hatred.
Last year"s street rally was considered a watershed in the country's politics, emboldening Malaysians unhappy with the government and boosting opposition parties to spectacular gains in general elections in March.Minority Indians and ethnic Chinese have recently become more vocal in speaking out against the government's decades-old policy that provide privileges in education, jobs and business to Malays, who comprise nearly two-thirds of Malaysia"s 27 million people. - AP
Dec 14 - About 20 Hindraf activists launched a protest fast on Sunday to demand the release of their leaders who have been imprisoned without trial for allegedly threatening racial stability.The protesters began consuming only water outside a Hindu temple in Kuala Lumpur, but there was no consensus about how long they will continue the fast, said Mr S. Jayathas, a member of the Hindu Rights Action Force."We want the government to listen to us and look into our legitimate rights," Mr Jayathas said.The group shot to prominence in November 2007 when it led tens of thousands of Indians in a rare street protest seeking an end to policies benefiting the Malay Muslim majority and to gain better opportunities for Indians, who form the bottom rung of Malaysia's social ladder.The protest marks the first anniversary of the jailing of five of the group's leaders last December under a tough security law that allows indefinite detention without trial.The government has also since banned the group, accusing it of inciting racial hatred.
Last year"s street rally was considered a watershed in the country's politics, emboldening Malaysians unhappy with the government and boosting opposition parties to spectacular gains in general elections in March.Minority Indians and ethnic Chinese have recently become more vocal in speaking out against the government's decades-old policy that provide privileges in education, jobs and business to Malays, who comprise nearly two-thirds of Malaysia"s 27 million people. - AP
what have they done...
The indicators of doom
When the leaders of this country along with the local top economic advisors say that this great nation of ours is immune to the global economic meltdown brought about by an international credit crunch, do you believe them? Or do you believe the volumes of foreign news from all around the world spelling out economic Armageddon in bold on their front pages?Why don’t we look at this from a different aspect and try to understand who is saying why and when about what is actually happening and whose truth does one believe in. There are certain indicators that do not lie and gold is one of them.Gold is a metal commodity that is revered since God-Knows-When and it is traded around the world today as one of the most important physical element. One can own it and feel it in one’s hands. One can use it for coinage, jewellery or in electronics parts. Gold is also traded on the spot and futures markets globally and it was once used as a standard, being pegged by a nation’s currency. So, what is actually gold? What makes it so valuable? Why the human obsession?The price of an item is driven by the supply and demand factors. When supply is low and demand is high, the price skyrockets. Alternately, when supply is a plentiful and demand is weak, the price bottoms out. This is an economic certainty. Gold however is different. It retains its intrinsic value regardless of whether the supply and demand is evident or otherwise. The only other commodity having such inherent characteristics is oil. That is why oil is also known as “black gold”. Herein lies the dilemma.When Citicorp, the largest banking institution in the entire history of the world, is in dire straits and requiring a government bailout, one can say that the global economic shit has hit the fan, big time. Credit crunch. What the Hell is a credit crunch? Well, insofar as I know, it is the deprivation of credit and without credit (owing to whatever factors) there is no trade. A company that cannot do trading is a dormant company. A nation that cannot do trading becomes a banana republic. Hyperinflation sets in as the value of its currency becomes insignificant. Prices for everything (goods and services) shoot up and the overall value of a nation decreases. Savings and pension funds are devalued and all banking institutions take a massive wallop. Share prices will be non-indicative of its true value and will render a nation’s economy worthless.So what has this to do with gold? Gold is traded in US Dollars (so is black gold). When the value of greenbacks depreciates against all currencies, gold would hereafter be traded at a lesser value than what it is actually worth. The price of gold (and black gold) will (one would think) henceforth rise to offset this devalued dollar. Well, this has not happened. The prices of gold and black gold have actually dropped, rather drastically too. Okay, one anomaly does not indicate a global economic meltdown.Let us now look at the futures prices for gold. Gold futures for January and February 2009 are, mildly said, bleak. When a commodity’s spot price is higher than the following delivery month’s futures price, it means that the value of that particular commodity is dropping. No big deal as the value of gold has always automatically corrected itself. When the following month’s futures price is also higher than the next following month’s futures prices, the economists call it “backwardation”. In the entire history of the world, gold has never experienced a backwardation, until December 2008. In fact, gold futures have never experienced a fall in price (and worth) for more than one single trading day and certainly never ever trickled across the following delivery month. Now we are looking at a minimum of three months’ drop in prices (since the 1st of December). This means that the gold basis has turned negative. Anomaly number two. Same with black gold – anomaly number three.What is exactly the gold basis? The gold basis is an incorruptible measure of trust in paper money. During the “Gold-Standard” Great Depression years of Roosevelt, the US Dollar was backed by physical gold. Not anymore since 1971 when it was allowed to float in the international trading markets. All currencies are now operated on a system called the “fiat money” which can be defined as “money that is intrinsically irredeemable and is primarily utilized only as a medium of exchange”, hence the gold basis as an indicative backing system for a currency’s actual worth.When the gold basis turns negative, the confidence and trust accorded the value of currencies drop. Paradoxically, one US Dollar now is not worth one US Dollar of before. When this happens, hyperinflation sets in. A loaf of bread costing US 1 Dollar might cost US 10 Dollars now. Where does the additional US 9 Dollars come from? Credit, what credit? Remember that there is a credit crunch?And then there are the paper gold traders and bullion banks. Gold can also be traded in paper form whereby the issuers guarantee the buyers ala traders ala investors, the value of gold on a piece of paper or in a “gold account”. In Malaysia, certain major banks offer such services. The government guarantees bank depositors their Ringgit but not investors. Likewise, the banks guarantee the value of the investment, not the worth. If ever the international bullion banks go bankrupt (either fraudulently or through the depreciation of the US Dollar against the value of gold), the investment will turn sour. This is quite possible if the price of gold continues to drop. In a backwardation scenario, spot gold traders will not continue to trade as gold producers stop production and go into hibernation. Futures gold traders holding these contracts will be wiped out as there can be no deliveries of this commodity and their contracts give them no right to physical gold anyway. Since there will be no legal trading of gold, all legal protection of the ownership of and trade in gold will be suspended indefinitely.This is altogether only hypothetical but in reality quite feasible. How will it affect Malaysia? The Ringgit is also an irredeemable “fiat” currency and not backed by any physical form of gold, and irredeemable currency can last only as long as it is visibly capable of supporting the futures market(s) in gold. Without a futures market trading gold, “wherefore art thou, my Malaysian Ringgit?”Yes, the southeastern nations of Asia (except Vietnam and Indonesia) are not directly affected by the depressing economic downturn as being experienced now in America and Europe. Part of the reasons why is due to our de-leveraged banking institutions and the high amount of foreign currencies currently being held by the respective governments here. Inadvertently though, the effects of the larger American and European markets will trickle down here and Malaysia will not be immune to it. This is because the Malaysian economy together with all the southeastern nations’ economies added together are not large enough to sustain this corner of the earth irrespective of the massive American and European markets. No matter what the government does here to try to stimulate the local economy, the greater effects from America and Europe will eclipse all attempts to divert this global economic tsunami away from our shores.You can bet your last “irredeemable” ringgit on it. Better still; bet your last ringgit on the Indian economy because India is the only country left in the entire world enjoying a positive economic growth rate.- Hakim Joe
When the leaders of this country along with the local top economic advisors say that this great nation of ours is immune to the global economic meltdown brought about by an international credit crunch, do you believe them? Or do you believe the volumes of foreign news from all around the world spelling out economic Armageddon in bold on their front pages?Why don’t we look at this from a different aspect and try to understand who is saying why and when about what is actually happening and whose truth does one believe in. There are certain indicators that do not lie and gold is one of them.Gold is a metal commodity that is revered since God-Knows-When and it is traded around the world today as one of the most important physical element. One can own it and feel it in one’s hands. One can use it for coinage, jewellery or in electronics parts. Gold is also traded on the spot and futures markets globally and it was once used as a standard, being pegged by a nation’s currency. So, what is actually gold? What makes it so valuable? Why the human obsession?The price of an item is driven by the supply and demand factors. When supply is low and demand is high, the price skyrockets. Alternately, when supply is a plentiful and demand is weak, the price bottoms out. This is an economic certainty. Gold however is different. It retains its intrinsic value regardless of whether the supply and demand is evident or otherwise. The only other commodity having such inherent characteristics is oil. That is why oil is also known as “black gold”. Herein lies the dilemma.When Citicorp, the largest banking institution in the entire history of the world, is in dire straits and requiring a government bailout, one can say that the global economic shit has hit the fan, big time. Credit crunch. What the Hell is a credit crunch? Well, insofar as I know, it is the deprivation of credit and without credit (owing to whatever factors) there is no trade. A company that cannot do trading is a dormant company. A nation that cannot do trading becomes a banana republic. Hyperinflation sets in as the value of its currency becomes insignificant. Prices for everything (goods and services) shoot up and the overall value of a nation decreases. Savings and pension funds are devalued and all banking institutions take a massive wallop. Share prices will be non-indicative of its true value and will render a nation’s economy worthless.So what has this to do with gold? Gold is traded in US Dollars (so is black gold). When the value of greenbacks depreciates against all currencies, gold would hereafter be traded at a lesser value than what it is actually worth. The price of gold (and black gold) will (one would think) henceforth rise to offset this devalued dollar. Well, this has not happened. The prices of gold and black gold have actually dropped, rather drastically too. Okay, one anomaly does not indicate a global economic meltdown.Let us now look at the futures prices for gold. Gold futures for January and February 2009 are, mildly said, bleak. When a commodity’s spot price is higher than the following delivery month’s futures price, it means that the value of that particular commodity is dropping. No big deal as the value of gold has always automatically corrected itself. When the following month’s futures price is also higher than the next following month’s futures prices, the economists call it “backwardation”. In the entire history of the world, gold has never experienced a backwardation, until December 2008. In fact, gold futures have never experienced a fall in price (and worth) for more than one single trading day and certainly never ever trickled across the following delivery month. Now we are looking at a minimum of three months’ drop in prices (since the 1st of December). This means that the gold basis has turned negative. Anomaly number two. Same with black gold – anomaly number three.What is exactly the gold basis? The gold basis is an incorruptible measure of trust in paper money. During the “Gold-Standard” Great Depression years of Roosevelt, the US Dollar was backed by physical gold. Not anymore since 1971 when it was allowed to float in the international trading markets. All currencies are now operated on a system called the “fiat money” which can be defined as “money that is intrinsically irredeemable and is primarily utilized only as a medium of exchange”, hence the gold basis as an indicative backing system for a currency’s actual worth.When the gold basis turns negative, the confidence and trust accorded the value of currencies drop. Paradoxically, one US Dollar now is not worth one US Dollar of before. When this happens, hyperinflation sets in. A loaf of bread costing US 1 Dollar might cost US 10 Dollars now. Where does the additional US 9 Dollars come from? Credit, what credit? Remember that there is a credit crunch?And then there are the paper gold traders and bullion banks. Gold can also be traded in paper form whereby the issuers guarantee the buyers ala traders ala investors, the value of gold on a piece of paper or in a “gold account”. In Malaysia, certain major banks offer such services. The government guarantees bank depositors their Ringgit but not investors. Likewise, the banks guarantee the value of the investment, not the worth. If ever the international bullion banks go bankrupt (either fraudulently or through the depreciation of the US Dollar against the value of gold), the investment will turn sour. This is quite possible if the price of gold continues to drop. In a backwardation scenario, spot gold traders will not continue to trade as gold producers stop production and go into hibernation. Futures gold traders holding these contracts will be wiped out as there can be no deliveries of this commodity and their contracts give them no right to physical gold anyway. Since there will be no legal trading of gold, all legal protection of the ownership of and trade in gold will be suspended indefinitely.This is altogether only hypothetical but in reality quite feasible. How will it affect Malaysia? The Ringgit is also an irredeemable “fiat” currency and not backed by any physical form of gold, and irredeemable currency can last only as long as it is visibly capable of supporting the futures market(s) in gold. Without a futures market trading gold, “wherefore art thou, my Malaysian Ringgit?”Yes, the southeastern nations of Asia (except Vietnam and Indonesia) are not directly affected by the depressing economic downturn as being experienced now in America and Europe. Part of the reasons why is due to our de-leveraged banking institutions and the high amount of foreign currencies currently being held by the respective governments here. Inadvertently though, the effects of the larger American and European markets will trickle down here and Malaysia will not be immune to it. This is because the Malaysian economy together with all the southeastern nations’ economies added together are not large enough to sustain this corner of the earth irrespective of the massive American and European markets. No matter what the government does here to try to stimulate the local economy, the greater effects from America and Europe will eclipse all attempts to divert this global economic tsunami away from our shores.You can bet your last “irredeemable” ringgit on it. Better still; bet your last ringgit on the Indian economy because India is the only country left in the entire world enjoying a positive economic growth rate.- Hakim Joe
Sunday, 14 December 2008
the making of a financial crisis...
Explaining the Global Financial Crisis
The US homeowner loses a Faustian bargain
What are the roots of the global financial crisis, and why has it produced a sudden and shocking collapse in American confidence and economic activity?
What has really gone wrong is that that entire model has collapsed along with the global financial institutions that hot-housed it. Not only has the ceiling come down on the US household sector, but the wreckage is blocking the exits.
It is that collapse of any exit strategies that is doing the damage. Simply to retain household debt-to-equity ratios at last year’s levels will now take a contraction of around 6.1 percent in nominal private consumption spending next year. To eliminate that debt/equity ratio would need a contraction of around 25 percent - the Depression Option.
Since the problem is not the ‘normal’ Austrian one of over-capacity and deflation, the normal road to recovery – supply-side reforms and industrial consolidation to build assets and labor productivity – is unlikely by itself to be sufficient. Full-scale recovery will await the re-invention of a financial system capable of reawakening a much-abused appetite for risk.
1. First, and this is the only piece of quantifiable good news this article contains, this is not a classic ‘Austrian’ crisis of overinvestment and deflation. Or at least it fits into that model at a level of generalization so broad and long as to be analytically disappointing. Nowhere in the developed world have we seen the sort of reckless overinvestment which, for example, we saw in the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. Nominal capital stock is growing around 3.4 percent in the US, around 5.3 percent in Europe, and 2.3 percent in Japan – hardly the stuff of bubbles. Similarly, private sector savings deficits are not running out of control. Even in the US, the private sector savings deficit is likely to be only around 1 percent of gross domestic product this year.
These are not the sort of ratios which precipitate financial crises. We expect the balance sheet of the financial system to be a mirror image of the balance sheet of the rest of the economy. But if that were the case, the problem would not possibly have escalated so catastrophically so quickly. In fact the balance sheet of the financial system no longer principally mirrors the balance sheet of the rest of the economy. Indeed, such is the size and opacity of off-balance sheet contingent liabilities, that we can say the balance sheet of financial institutions no longer even mirrors the balance sheet of the financial system.
There was a motive for this: the expiration of the 27-year bull market. And there was the opportunity: the increasingly gothic financial structures of the derivatives market which, at a huge cost, created any yield curve you liked.
That divorce between real economy and financial system balance sheets really is a problem. It explains why, unlike any other financial crises I’ve witnessed or even read about, the problem is not that the US financial system has run out of money – the strength of the currency and government bond markets show that quite clearly. It’s simply that the institutions that can use that money either no longer exist, or can no longer be safely guaranteed to exist by the end of the financial and economic crisis.
The US homeowner loses a Faustian bargain
What are the roots of the global financial crisis, and why has it produced a sudden and shocking collapse in American confidence and economic activity?
What has really gone wrong is that that entire model has collapsed along with the global financial institutions that hot-housed it. Not only has the ceiling come down on the US household sector, but the wreckage is blocking the exits.
It is that collapse of any exit strategies that is doing the damage. Simply to retain household debt-to-equity ratios at last year’s levels will now take a contraction of around 6.1 percent in nominal private consumption spending next year. To eliminate that debt/equity ratio would need a contraction of around 25 percent - the Depression Option.
Since the problem is not the ‘normal’ Austrian one of over-capacity and deflation, the normal road to recovery – supply-side reforms and industrial consolidation to build assets and labor productivity – is unlikely by itself to be sufficient. Full-scale recovery will await the re-invention of a financial system capable of reawakening a much-abused appetite for risk.
1. First, and this is the only piece of quantifiable good news this article contains, this is not a classic ‘Austrian’ crisis of overinvestment and deflation. Or at least it fits into that model at a level of generalization so broad and long as to be analytically disappointing. Nowhere in the developed world have we seen the sort of reckless overinvestment which, for example, we saw in the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. Nominal capital stock is growing around 3.4 percent in the US, around 5.3 percent in Europe, and 2.3 percent in Japan – hardly the stuff of bubbles. Similarly, private sector savings deficits are not running out of control. Even in the US, the private sector savings deficit is likely to be only around 1 percent of gross domestic product this year.
These are not the sort of ratios which precipitate financial crises. We expect the balance sheet of the financial system to be a mirror image of the balance sheet of the rest of the economy. But if that were the case, the problem would not possibly have escalated so catastrophically so quickly. In fact the balance sheet of the financial system no longer principally mirrors the balance sheet of the rest of the economy. Indeed, such is the size and opacity of off-balance sheet contingent liabilities, that we can say the balance sheet of financial institutions no longer even mirrors the balance sheet of the financial system.
There was a motive for this: the expiration of the 27-year bull market. And there was the opportunity: the increasingly gothic financial structures of the derivatives market which, at a huge cost, created any yield curve you liked.
That divorce between real economy and financial system balance sheets really is a problem. It explains why, unlike any other financial crises I’ve witnessed or even read about, the problem is not that the US financial system has run out of money – the strength of the currency and government bond markets show that quite clearly. It’s simply that the institutions that can use that money either no longer exist, or can no longer be safely guaranteed to exist by the end of the financial and economic crisis.
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